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HomeMy WebLinkAboutO-3333 - Amending the Comprehensive Plan by the Adoption of the Lake Stevens and Lakewood School Districts' 2024-2029 Capital Facilities PlansCOMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT 501 Delta Avenue  Marysville, WA 98270 (360) 363-8100  (360) 651-5099 FAX MEMORANDUM DATE: December 9, 2024 TO: City Council FROM: Angela Gemmer, Principal Planner SUBJECT: 2024 – 2029 School District Capital Facilities Plans for Lake Stevens and Lakewood School Districts (CPA24-001) CC: Haylie Miller, Community Development Director Chris Holland, Planning Manager Exhibits: 1. Planning Commission Recommendation 2. Lake Stevens School District CFP with SEPA determination and board resolution 3. Lakewood School District CFP with SEPA determination and board minutes 4. Marysville School District Enrollment Forecast Memo Pursuant to MMC 22D.040.030(1), any district serving the City of Marysville shall be eligible to receive school impact fees upon adoption by Marysville City Council of a Capital Facilities Plan (CFP) for the district as a sub-element of the Capital Facilities Element of the Marysville Comprehensive Plan. Districts’ CFPs are reviewed and adopted on a biennial basis. This cycle, the Lake Stevens and Lakewood School Districts have submitted CFPs (see Exhibits 2 and 3 respectively); however, only Lake Stevens is requesting school impact fees for 2025 – 2026. Due to declining enrollment, the Marysville School District has not submitted a CFP and will also not be requesting impact fees; however, the district furnished an Enrollment Forecast Memo (Exhibit 4). Upon receipt of a district’s CFP, the Community Development Department must determine: 1. That the analysis contained within the CFP is consistent with current data developed pursuant to the requirements of the Growth Management Act (GMA). 2. That any school impact fee proposed in the District’s CFP has been calculated using the formula contained in MMC 22D.040.050 Table 1. 3. That the CFP has been adopted by the District’s board of directors. Based on a review of the Districts’ CFPs, it appears each plan has been prepared pursuant to the requirements of the GMA (RCW 36.70A), the impact fees for Lake Stevens have been calculated using the formula contained in MMC 22D.040.050 Table 1, and the CFPs have been adopted by each district’s board of directors. The following is a breakdown of current and proposed impact fees, as outlined in the Districts’ CFPs, applying the 50 percent pursuant to MMC 22D.040.050(1). Lake Stevens School District 2022 - 2027 (current) 2024 - 2029 (proposed) Difference Single-family $11,434.00 $13,730.00 +$2,296.00 Townhouse/Multiplex $2,526.00 $2,627.00 +$101.00 Multi-family (studio or one bedroom unit) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Multi-family (two or more bedroom unit) $2,526.00 $741.00 -$1,785.00 Lakewood School District 2022 - 2027 (current) 2024 - 2029 (proposed) Difference Single-family $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Multi-family (studio or one bedroom unit) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Multi-family (two or more bedroom unit) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Staff respectfully requests the Planning Commission recommend that the City Council approve the Lake Stevens and Lakewood Schools Districts’ 2024 – 2029 CFPs. Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 2024 – 2029 CAPITAL FACILITIES PLAN LAKE STEVENS SCHOOL DISTRICT NO. 4 prepared for: Snohomish County And City of Lake Stevens City of Marysville Final July 10, 2024 Lake Stevens School District ii Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 CAPITAL FACILITIES PLAN LAKE STEVENS SCHOOL DISTRICT NO. 4 BOARD OF DIRECTORS Mari Taylor, President David Iseminger, Vice President Nina Kim Hanson Vildan Kirby Paul Lund SUPERINTENDENT Mary Templeton, Ed.D. This plan is not a static document. It will change as demographics, information and District plans change. It is a “snapshot” of one moment in time. For information on the Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan contact Robb Stanton at the District (425) 335-1500 Lake Stevens School District iii Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION 1 Purpose of the Capital Facilities Plan 1 Overview of the Lake Stevens School District 2 Significant Issues Related to Facility Planning in the Lake Stevens School District 3 SECTION 2: DEFINITIONS 4 SECTION 3: DISTRICT EDUCATIONAL PROGRAM STANDARDS 8 Educational Program Standards for Elementary Grades 9 Educational Program Standards for Middle, Mid-High and High Schools 9 Minimum Educational Service Standards 10 SECTION 4: CAPITAL FACILITIES INVENTORY 11 Capital Facilities 11 Schools 11 Leased Facilities 12 Relocatable Classroom Facilities (Portables) 12 Support Facilities 13 Land Inventory 14 SECTION 5: STUDENT ENROLLMENT TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS 16 Historic Trends and Projections 16 2044 Enrollment Projection 17 SECTION 6: CAPITAL FACILITIES PLAN 19 Existing Deficiencies 19 Facility Needs (2024-2029) 19 Forecast of Future Facility Needs through 2044 20 Planned Improvements (2024-2029) 20 Capital Facilities Six-Year Finance Plan 20 Impact Fee Calculation Criteria 25 Proposed Impact Fee Schedule 30 Lake Stevens School District iv Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 LIST OF TABLES Page Table 3-1: Minimum Educational Program Standards (MPES) Met 10 Table 4-1: School Capacity Inventory 12 Table 4-2: Portables 13 Table 4-3: Support Facilities 13 Table 5-1: Enrollment 2014-2023 16 Table 5-2: Projected Enrollment 2024-2029 17 Table 5-3: Projected 2044 Enrollment 18 Table 6-1: Projected Additional Capacity Needs 2024-2029 19 Table 6-2 Additional Capacity Need: 2029 & 2044 20 Table 6-3: Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 22 Table 6-4: Impact Fee Revenues and Expenditures 24 Table 6-5: Projected Growth-Related Capacity Surplus (Deficit) After Programmed Improvements 25 Table 6-6: Student Generation Rates 26 Table 6-7: Impact Fee Variables 29 Table 6-8: Calculated Impact Fees 30 LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1: Map of District Facilities 15 Figure 2: Lake Stevens School District Enrollment 2014-2023 16 Figure 3: Projected Lake Stevens School District Enrollment 2024-2029 17 APPENDICES Appendix A: Impact Fee Calculations Appendix B: OSPI Enrollment Forecasting Methodology Appendix C: OFM Ration Method – 2044 Enrollment Estimate Appendix D: Student Generation Rates – FLO Analytics Appendix E: Board Resolution Adopting Capital Facilities Plan Appendix F: SEPA Checklist and Determination of Non-Significance Appendix G: Snohomish County General Policy Plan -- Appendix F Lake Stevens School District 1 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION Purpose of the Capital Facilities Plan The Washington Growth Management Act (GMA) outlines thirteen broad goals including adequate provision of necessary public facilities and services. Schools are among these necessary facilities and services. The public school districts serving Snohomish County residents have developed capital facilities plans to satisfy the requirements of RCW 36.70A.070 and to identify additional school facilities necessary to meet the educational needs of the growing student populations anticipated in their districts. This Capital Facilities Plan (CFP) is intended to provide the Lake Stevens School District (District), Snohomish County, the City of Lake Stevens, the City of Marysville and other jurisdictions a description of facilities needed to accommodate projected student enrollment at acceptable levels of service over the next twenty years (2044), with a more detailed schedule and financing program for capital improvements over the next six years (2024-2029). This CFP is based in large measure on the 2024 Facilities Needs Plan for the Lake Stevens School District. When Snohomish County adopted its GMA Comprehensive Plan in 1995, it addressed future school capital facilities plans in Appendix F of the General Policy Plan1. This part of the plan establishes the criteria for all future updates of the District CFP, which is to occur every two years. This CFP updates the GMA-based Capital Facilities Plan last adopted by the District in 2022. In accordance with GMA mandates and Chapter 30.66C SCC, this CFP contains the following required elements: Element See Page Table Future enrollment forecasts for each grade span (elementary, middle, mid-high and high). 17 5-2 An inventory of existing capital facilities owned by the District, showing the locations and student capacities of the facilities. 12 4-1 A forecast of the future needs for capital facilities and school sites; distinguishing between existing and projected deficiencies. 19 20 6-1 6-2 The proposed capacities of expanded or new capital facilities. 22 6-3 1 See Appendix F of this CFP Lake Stevens School District 2 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Element See Page Table A six-year plan for financing capital facilities within projected funding capacities, which clearly identifies sources of public money for such purposes. The financing plan separates projects and portions of projects that add capacity from those which do not, since the latter are generally not appropriate for impact fee funding. The financing plan and/or the impact fee calculation formula must also differentiate between projects or portions of projects that address existing deficiencies (ineligible for impact fees) and those which address future growth-related needs. 22 6-3 A calculation of impact fees to be assessed and support data substantiating said fees. Appendix A A report on fees collected through December 2023 and how those funds were used. 24 6-4 In developing this CFP, the guidelines of Appendix F of the General Policy Plan2 were used as follows: • Information was obtained from recognized sources, such as the U.S. Census or the Puget Sound Regional Council. School districts may generate their own data if it is derived through statistically reliable methodologies. Information is to be consistent with the State Office of Financial Management (OFM) population forecasts and those of Snohomish County. • Chapter 30.66C SCC requires that student generation rates be independently calculated by each school district. Rates were updated for this CFP by FLO Analytics (See Appendix C). • The CFP complies with RCW 36.70A (the Growth Management Act) and, where impact fees are to be assessed, RCW 82.02. • The calculation methodology for impact fees meets the conditions and test of RCW 82.02. Districts which propose the use of impact fees should identify in future plan updates alternative funding sources if impact fees are not available due to action by the state, county or the cities within their district boundaries. Adoption of this CFP by reference by the County and cities of Marysville and Lake Stevens constitutes approval of the methodology used herein by those entities. Overview of the Lake Stevens School District The Lake Stevens School District is located six miles east of downtown Everett and encompasses most of the City of Lake Stevens as well as portions of unincorporated Snohomish County and a small portion of the City of Marysville. The District is located south of the Marysville School District and north of the Snohomish School District. The District currently serves a student population of 9,4233 with seven elementary schools, two middle schools, one mid-high school, one high school and one homeschool partnership program (HomeLink). 2 See Appendix G of this CFP 3 March 2024 Headcount Report Lake Stevens School District 3 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Elementary schools provide educational programs for students in kindergarten through grade five. Middle schools serve grades six and seven, the mid-high serves grades eight and nine and the high school serves grades ten through twelve. HomeLink provides programs for students from kindergarten through eighth grade. The District employs over 600 certificated staff members and over 600 classified staff for a total of over 1,200. Significant Issues Related to Facility Planning in the Lake Stevens School District The most significant issues facing the Lake Stevens School District in terms of providing classroom capacity to accommodate existing and projected demands are: • Continued housing growth in the District. • The need to have unhoused students before becoming eligible for state construction funding. • The implementation of reduced class sizes at the K-3 level at all elementary schools. • Uneven distribution of growth across the district and an imbalance in growth in the north and south ends of the district, requiring facilities to balance enrollment. • Increased critical areas regulations, decreasing the amount of developable area on school sites. • Discounted school impact fees and changes to how and when these fees are calculated and paid, none of which supports mitigating the true impact of development. • The need for additional property and lack of suitable sites within Urban Growth Area (UGA) boundaries to accommodate school facilities. • The elimination of the ability to develop schools outside of UGAs. • The inability to add temporary capacity with portable classrooms on school sites without costly stormwater and infrastructure improvements. • Aging school facilities. • Projected permanent capacity shortfall by 2029 for K-5 of 1,249 students (with no improvements). These issues are addressed in greater detail in this Capital Facilities Plan. Lake Stevens School District 4 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 SECTION 2: DEFINITIONS Note: Definitions of terms proceeded by an asterisk (*) are provided in Chapter 30.9SCC. They are included here, in some cases with further clarification to aid in the understanding of this CFP. Any such clarifications provided herein in no way affect the legal definitions and meanings assigned to them in Chapter 30.9 SCC. *Appendix F means Appendix F of the Snohomish County Growth Management Act (GMA) Comprehensive Plan, also referred to as the General Policy Plan (GPP). *Average Assessed Value average assessed value by dwelling unit type for all residential units constructed within the district. These figures are provided by Snohomish County. The current average assessed value for 2024 is $621,496 for single-family detached residential dwellings; $175,173 for one-bedroom (Small) multi-family units, and $242,411 for two or more bedroom (Large) multi-family units. *Boeckh Index (See Construction Cost Allocation) *Board means the Board of Directors of the Lake Stevens School District (“School Board”). Capital Bond Rate means the annual percentage rate computed against capital (construction) bonds issued by the District. For 2024, a rate of 3.48% is used. (See also “Interest Rate”) *Capital Facilities means school facilities identified in the District’s capital facilities plan that are “system improvements” as defined by the GMA as opposed to localized “project improvements.” *Capital Facilities Plan (CFP) means the District’s facilities plan adopted by its school board consisting of those elements required by Chapter 30.66C SCC and meeting the requirements of the GMA and Appendix F of the General Policy Plan. The definition refers to this document, which is consistent with the adopted “2024 Facilities Needs Plan for the Lake Stevens School District,” which is a separate document. Construction Cost Allocation (formerly the Boeckh Index) means a factor used by OSPI as a guideline for determining the area cost allowance for new school construction. The Index for the 2024 Capital Facilities Plan is $375.00, as provided by OSPI. *City means City of Lake Stevens and/or City of Marysville. *Council means the Snohomish County Council and/or the Lake Stevens or Marysville City Council. *County means Snohomish County. *Commerce means the Washington State Department of Commerce. *Developer means the proponent of a development activity, such as any person or entity that owns or holds purchase options or other development control over property for which development activity is Lake Stevens School District 5 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 proposed. *Development means all subdivisions, short subdivisions, conditional use or special use permits, binding site plan approvals, rezones accompanied by an official site plan, or building permits (including building permits for multi-family and duplex residential structures, and all similar uses) and other applications requiring land use permits or approval by Snohomish County, the City of Lake Stevens and/or City of Marysville. *Development Activity means any residential construction or expansion of a building, structure or use of land or any other change of building, structure or land that creates additional demand and need for school facilities but excluding building permits for attached or detached accessory apartments, and remodeling or renovation permits which do not result in additional dwelling units. Also excluded from this definition is “Housing for Older Persons” as defined by 46 U.S.C. § 3607, when guaranteed by a restrictive covenant, and new single-family detached units constructed on legal lots created prior to May 1, 1991. *Development Approval means any written authorization from the County and/or City, which authorizes the commencement of a development activity. *Director means the Director of the Snohomish County Department of Planning and Development Services (PDS), or the Director’s designee. District means Lake Stevens School District No. 4. *District Property Tax Levy Rate (Capital Levy) means the District's current capital property tax rate per thousand dollars of assessed value. For this Capital Facilities Plan, the assumed levy rate is .00120. *Dwelling Unit Type means (1) single-family detached residences, (2) townhomes and multiplex units (duplexes, triplexes and quadplexes) and (3) multi-family apartment or condominium units. *Encumbered means school impact fees identified by the District to be committed as part of the funding for capital facilities for which the publicly funded share has been assured, development approvals have been sought or construction contracts have been let. *Estimated Facility Construction Cost means the planned costs of new schools or the actual construction costs of schools of the same grade span recently constructed by the District, including on-site and off-site improvement costs. If the District does not have this cost information available, construction costs of school facilities of the same or similar grade span within another District are acceptable. *FTE (Full Time Equivalent) is a means of measuring student enrollment based on the number of hours per day in attendance at the District’s schools. A student is considered one FTE if they are enrolled for the equivalent of a full schedule each full day. *GFA (per student) means the Gross Floor Area per student. Lake Stevens School District 6 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 *Grade Span means a category into which the District groups its grades of students (e.g., elementary, middle, mid-high and high school). Growth Management Act (GMA) - means the Growth Management Act (RCW 36.70A). *Interest Rate means the current interest rate as stated in the Bond Buyer Twenty Bond General Obligation Bond Index. For this Capital Facilities Plan an assumed rate of 3.48% is used, as provided by Snohomish County. (See also “Capital Bond Rate”) *Land Cost Per Acre means the estimated average land acquisition cost per acre (in current dollars) based on recent site acquisition costs, comparisons of comparable site acquisition costs in other districts, or the average assessed value per acre of properties comparable to school sites located within the District. In 2024 the District estimates land costs to average $200,000 per acre. *Multi-Family Dwelling Unit means any residential dwelling unit that is not a single-family unit as defined by Chapter 30.66C. SCC3 *OFM means Washington State Office of Financial Management. *OSPI means Washington State Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction. *Permanent Facilities means school facilities of the District with a fixed foundation. *R.C.W. means the Revised Code of Washington (a state law). *Relocatable Facilities (also referred to as temporary classrooms or portables) means factory-built structures, transportable in one or more sections, which are designed to be used as an education space and are needed: • to prevent the overbuilding of school facilities, • to meet the needs of service areas within the District, or • to cover the gap between the time that families move into new residential developments and the date that construction is completed on permanent school facilities. *Relocatable Facilities Cost means the total cost, based on actual costs incurred by the District, for purchasing and installing portable classrooms. *Relocatable Facilities Student Capacity means the rated capacity for a typical portable classroom used for a specified grade span. *School Impact Fee means a payment of money imposed upon development as a condition of development approval to pay for school facilities needed to serve the new growth and development. The school impact fee does not include a reasonable permit fee, an application fee, the administrative fee for collecting and handling impact fees, or the cost of reviewing independent fee calculations. *SEPA means the State Environmental Policy Act (RCW 43.21C). Lake Stevens School District 7 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 *Single-Family Dwelling Unit means any detached residential dwelling unit designed for occupancy by a single-family or household. *Standard of Service means the standard adopted by the District which identifies the program year, the class size by grade span and taking into account the requirements of students with special needs, the number of classrooms, the types of facilities the District believes will best serve its student population and other factors as identified in the District’s capital facilities plan. The District’s standard of service shall not be adjusted for any portion of the classrooms housed in relocatable facilities that are used as temporary facilities or from any specialized facilities housed in relocatable facilities. *State Match Percentage means the proportion of funds that are provided to the District for specific capital projects from the State’s Common School Construction Fund. These funds are disbursed based on a formula which calculates district assessed valuation per pupil relative to the whole State assessed valuation per pupil to establish the maximum percentage of the total project eligible to be paid by the State. *Student Factor (Student Generation Rate [SGR]) means the number of students of each grade span (elementary, middle, mid-high and high school) that the District determines are typically generated by different dwelling unit types within the District4. Each District will use a survey or statistically valid methodology to derive the specific student generation rate, provided that the survey or methodology is approved by the Snohomish County Council as part of the adopted capital facilities plan for each District. (See Appendix C) *Subdivision means all small and large lot subdivisions as defined in Section 30.41 of the Snohomish County Code. *Teaching Station means a facility space (classroom) specifically dedicated to implementing the District’s educational program and capable of accommodating at any one time, at least a full class of up to 30 students. In addition to traditional classrooms, these spaces can include computer labs, auditoriums, gymnasiums, music rooms and other special education and resource rooms. *Unhoused Students means District enrolled students who are housed in portable or temporary classroom space, or in permanent classrooms in which the maximum class size is exceeded. *WAC means the Washington Administrative Code. 4 For purposes of calculating Student Generation Rates, assisted living or senior citizen housing are not included. Lake Stevens School District 8 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 SECTION 3: DISTRICT EDUCATIONAL PROGRAM STANDARDS School facility and student capacity needs are dictated by the types and amounts of space required to accommodate the District’s adopted educational program. The educational program standards that typically drive facility space needs include grade configuration, optimum facility size, class size, educational program offerings, classroom utilization and scheduling requirements, and use of relocatable classroom facilities (portables). Educational Program Standards are the same as the minimum level of service as required by Appendix F of the Growth Management Comprehensive Plan. In addition, government mandates and community expectations may affect how classroom space is used. Traditional educational programs offered by school districts are often supplemented by nontraditional or special programs such as special education, English as a second language, remediation, alcohol and drug education, preschool and daycare programs, computer labs, music programs, etc. These special or nontraditional educational programs can have a significant impact on the available student capacity of school facilities. Examples of special programs offered by the Lake Stevens School District at specific school sites include: • Behavioral Program • Bilingual Program • Career and Technical Education • Community Education • Conflict Resolution • Contract-Based Learning • Credit Retrieval • Drug Resistance Education • Early Learning Center, which includes ECEAP and developmental preschool • Full-day Kindergarten • Highly Capable • Home School Parent Partnership (HomeLink) • Language Assistance Program (LAP) • Life Skills Self-Contained Program • Multi-Age Instruction • Multi-tiered Systems of Support • Occupational and Physical Therapy • Online Distance Learning • Running Start • Speech and Language Pathologists • Structured Learning Center Self-Contained Program • Summer School • Title 1 • Title 2 Variations in student capacity between schools are often a result of what special or nontraditional Lake Stevens School District 9 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 programs are offered at specific schools. These special programs require classroom space, which can reduce the regular classroom capacity of some of the buildings housing these programs. Some students, for example, leave their regular classroom for a short period of time to receive instruction in these special programs. Newer schools within the District have been designed to accommodate most of these programs. However, older schools often require space modifications to accommodate special programs, and in some circumstances, these modifications may reduce the overall classroom capacities of the buildings. District educational program requirements will undoubtedly change in the future as a result of changes in the program year, special programs, class sizes, grade span configurations, state funding levels and use of new technology, as well as other physical aspects of the school facilities. The school capacity inventory will be reviewed periodically and adjusted for any changes to the educational program standards. These changes will also be reflected in future updates of this Capital Facilities Plan. In addition, districts are wrestling with the outcomes from the McCleary decision and additional funding and requirements from OSPI and the state Legislature. Many of these outcomes, like full-day kindergarten and reduced class sizes at the elementary level and new graduation requirements at the high school level can have significant impacts to the use of facilities. These will need to be incorporated into the District’s facility capacities and uses. The District’s minimum educational program requirements, which directly affect school capacity, are outlined below for the elementary, middle, mid-high and high school grade levels. Educational Program Standards for Elementary Grades • Average class size for kindergarten should not exceed 23 students. • Average class size for grades 1-3 should not exceed 25 students. • Average class size for grades 4-5 should not exceed 27 students. • Special Education for students may be provided in a self-contained classroom. The practical capacity for these classrooms is 12 students. • All students will be provided music instruction in a separate classroom. • Optimum design capacity for new elementary schools is 650 students. However, the actual capacity of individual schools may vary depending on the educational programs offered. Educational Program Standards for Middle, Mid-High and High Schools • Class size for secondary grade (6-12) regular classrooms should not exceed 30 students. • Special Education for students may be provided in a self-contained classroom. The practical capacity for these classrooms is 12 students. • As a result of scheduling conflicts for student programs, the need for specialized rooms for certain programs, and the need for teachers to have a workspace during planning periods, it is not possible to achieve 100% utilization of all regular teaching stations throughout the day. Therefore, classroom capacity is adjusted using a utilization factor of 83% at the high school, mid-high and middle school levels. • Some Special Education services for students will be provided in a self-contained classroom. • Identified students will also be provided other nontraditional educational opportunities in classrooms designated as follows: o Resource Rooms (i.e., computer labs, study rooms). o Special Education Classrooms. Lake Stevens School District 10 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 • Program Specific Classrooms: o Music o Physical Education o Drama o Family and Consumer Sciences o Art o Career and Technical Education Optimum design capacity for new middle schools is 750 students. Optimum design capacity for new high schools is 2,000 students. The actual capacity of individual schools may vary depending on the educational programs offered. Minimum Educational Program Standards The Lake Stevens School District will evaluate student housing levels based on the District as a whole system and not on a school by school or site by site basis. This may result in portable classrooms being used as interim housing, attendance boundary changes or other program changes to balance student housing across the system. The Lake Stevens School District has set minimum educational program standards based on several criteria. Exceeding these minimum standards will trigger significant changes in program delivery. If there are 27 or fewer students in a majority of K-5 classrooms, the standards have been met; if there are 30 or fewer students in a majority of 6-12 classrooms, the minimum standards have been met. The Lake Stevens School District meets these standards at all grade levels. Table 3-1 – Minimum Educational Program Standards (MEPS) Met It should be noted that the minimum educational program standard is just that, a minimum, and not the desired or accepted operating standard. Also, portables are used to accommodate students within District standards, but are not considered a permanent solution. (See Chapter 4). Grade Level Classrooms Meeting MLOS Total Classrooms % Meeting MEPS Total Elementary 180 186 97% Total Secondary 188 196 96% District Total 368 382 96% Lake Stevens School District 11 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 SECTION 4: CAPITAL FACILITIES INVENTORY Capital Facilities Under GMA, public entities are required to inventory capital facilities used to serve the existing populations. Capital facilities are defined as any structure, improvement, piece of equipment, or other major asset, including land that has a useful life of at least ten years. The purpose of the facilities inventory is to establish a baseline for determining what facilities will be required to accommodate future demand (student enrollment) at acceptable or established levels of service. This section provides an inventory of capital facilities owned and operated by the Lake Stevens School District including schools, portables, developed school sites, undeveloped land and support facilities. School facility capacity was inventoried based on the space required to accommodate the District’s adopted educational program standards (see Section 3). A map showing locations of District school facilities is provided as Figure 1. Schools The Lake Stevens School District includes: seven elementary schools grades K-5, two middle schools grades 6-7, one mid-high school grades 8-9, one high school grades 10-12, and an alternative K-8 home school partnership program (HomeLink). The Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI) calculates school capacity by dividing gross square footage of a building by a standard square footage per student. This method is used by the State as a simple and uniform approach for determining school capacity for purposes of allocating available State Match Funds to school districts for school construction. However, this method is not considered an accurate reflection of the capacity required to accommodate the adopted educational program of each individual district. For this reason, school capacity was determined based on the number of teaching stations within each building and the space requirements of the District’s adopted education program. These capacity calculations were used to establish the District’s baseline capacity and determine future capacity needs based on projected student enrollment. The school capacity inventory is summarized in Table 4-1. Lake Stevens School District 12 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Table 4-1 – School Capacity Inventory *Note: Student Capacity is exclusive of portables and includes adjustments for special programs. Leased Facilities The District does not lease any permanent classrooms. Relocatable Classrooms (Portables) Portables are used as temporary classroom space to house students until funding can be secured to construct permanent classroom facilities. Portables are not viewed by the District as a solution for housing students on a permanent basis. The Lake Stevens School District currently uses 92 portable classrooms at various school sites throughout the District to provide temporary capacity for K-12 students. This compares with 75 portables used in 2020. A typical portable classroom can provide capacity for a full-size class of students. Current use of portables throughout the District is summarized in Table 4-2. School Name Site Size (acres) Bldg. Area (Sq. Ft.) Teaching Stations - Regular Teaching Stations - SPED Perm. Student Capacity* Capacity with Portables Year Built or Last Remodel Potential for Expansion of Perm. Facility Elementary Schools Glenwood Elementary 9.0 50,513 22 2 474 599 1992 Yes Highland Elementary 8.7 53,725 20 2 440 590 1999 Yes Hillcrest Elementary 15.0 55,571 22 484 779 2008 Yes Mt. Pilchuck Elementary 22.0 55,282 22 2 490 565 2008 Yes Skyline Elementary 15.0 52,417 19 4 439 539 1992 Yes Stevens Creek Elementary 20.0 83,244 26 2 574 624 2018 Yes Sunnycrest Elementary 15.0 50,592 24 519 619 2009 Yes Elementary Total 104.7 401,344 155 12 3,420 4,315 Middle Schools Lake Stevens Middle School 25.0 86,206 26 5 637 829 1996 Yes North Lake Middle School 15.0 91,516 34 2 787 887 2001 Yes Middle School Total 40.0 177,722 60 7 1,424 1,716 Mid-High Cavelero Mid-High School 37.0 225,612 62 8 1,484 1,529 2007 Yes Mid-High Total 37.0 225,612 62 8 1,484 1,529 High Schools Lake Stevens High School 38.0 312,598 86 6 1,997 1,997 2021 Yes High School Total 38.0 312,598 86 6 1,997 1,997 District Totals 219.7 1,117,276 363 33 8,325 9,557 Lake Stevens School District 13 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Table 4-2 – Portables The District will continue to purchase or move existing portables, as needed, to cover the gap between the time that families move into new residential developments and the time the District is able to complete construction on permanent school facilities. Support Facilities In addition to schools, the Lake Stevens School District owns and operates additional facilities that provide operational support functions to the schools. An inventory of these facilities is provided in Table 4-3. Table 4-3 – Support Facilities School Name Portable Classrooms Capacity in Portables Remaining Useful Life Portable Area (ft2) ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS Glenwood 10 125 Good/excellent 8,960 Highland 10 150 Good 8,960 Hillcrest 21 295 Good/excellent 18,816 Mt. Pilchuck 9 75 Good 8,064 Skyline 11 100 Good/excellent 9,856 Stevens Creek 2 50 Excellent 1,792 Sunnycrest 7 100 Good 6,272 Elementary Total 70 895 62,720 MIDDLE SCHOOLS Lake Stevens Middle 11 192 Good 9,856 North Lake Middle 9 100 Good 8,064 Middle Schools Total 20 292 17,920 MID-HIGH SCHOOL Cavelero Mid-High 2 45 Excellent 1,792 Mid-High Total 2 45 1,792 HIGH SCHOOL Lake Stevens High School 0 0 0 High School Total 0 0 0 District K-12 Total 92 1,232 82,432 Facility Site Acres Building Area (sq.ft.) Education Service Center 1.4 14,771 Grounds 1.0 2,788 Maintenance 1.0 5,724 Transportation 6.0 15,589 Support Facility Total 9.4 38,872 Lake Stevens School District 14 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Land Inventory The Lake Stevens School District owns four undeveloped sites described below: Ten acres located in the northeast area of the District (Lochsloy area), west of Highway 92. This site will eventually be used for an elementary school (beyond the year 2029). It is presently used as an auxiliary sports field. An approximately 35-acre site northeast of the intersection of Highway 9 and Soper Hill Road bordered by Lake Drive on the east. This is the site of the district’s newest elementary school and early learning center. The remainder of the site is planned for a future school. A parcel of approximately 23 acres located at 20th Street SE and 83rd Street. This property was donated to the School District for an educational facility. The property is encumbered by wetlands and easements, leaving less than 10 available acres. It is planned to be a future elementary school. A 2.42-acre site (Jubb Field) located in an area north of Highway #92 is used as a small softball field. It is not of sufficient size to support a school. Lake Stevens School District 15 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Figure 1 – Map of District Facilities Lake Stevens School District 16 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 SECTION 5: STUDENT ENROLLMENT TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS Historic Trends and Projections Student enrollment in the Lake Stevens School District remained relatively constant between 1973 and 1985 (15%) and then grew significantly from 1985 through 2005 (approximately 120%). Between 2014 and 2023, student enrollment increased by 1,193 students, over 14%. The District has been and is projected to continue to be one of the fastest growing districts in Snohomish County based on the OFM- based population forecast. Population is estimated by the County to rise from 50,461 in 2020 to almost 67,294 in Year 2044, an increase of 33%. Figure 2 – Lake Stevens School District Enrollment 2014-2023 Enrollment projections are most accurate for the initial years of the forecast period. Moving further into the future, economic conditions and demographic trends in the area affect the estimates. Monitoring population growth for the area is an essential yearly activity in the ongoing management of the capital facilities plan. In the event enrollment growth slows, plans for new facilities can be delayed. It is much more difficult, however, to initiate new projects or speed projects up in the event enrollment growth exceeds the projections. Table 5-1 shows enrollment growth from 2014 to 2023 according to OSPI and District records. Table 5-1 - Enrollment 2014-2023 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Elementary 3,917 3,971 4,030 4,083 4,207 4,362 3,998 4,354 4,372 4,397 Middle 1,261 1,314 1,398 1,405 1,414 1,556 1,468 1,426 1,450 1,527 Mid-High 1,318 1,331 1,312 1,344 1,426 1,448 1,476 1,524 1,497 1,447 High School 1,757 1,776 1,871 1,814 1,828 1,834 1,912 2,021 2,020 2,075 Total 8,253 8,392 8,611 8,646 8,875 9,200 8,854 9,325 9,339 9,446 Note that the District’s enrollment dropped by 346 students (3.8%) in 2020. In 2020, education was mostly held remotely due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and many districts experienced enrollment Lake Stevens School District 17 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 declines. Unlike many districts, however, enrollment in Lake Stevens bounced back up by 471 students (5.3%) in 2021 and enrollment has continued to grow since. The District has used either a Ratio Method for its projections or accepted the projections from the State Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI). The Ratio Method (See Appendix C) estimates future enrollments as a percentage of total population, which is tracked for past years, with assumptions being made for what this percentage will be in future years. Between 2010-2023, the average percentage was 18.46%. For future planning, a level rate of 17.41% was used through 2029 and for Year 2044. These assumptions recognize a trend toward lower household sizes offset by significant growth anticipated in the Lake Stevens area. OSPI methodology uses a modified cohort survival method which is explained in Appendix B. Ratio Method estimates are found in Table 5-2. These have been adopted as part of this Capital Facilities Plan. Table 5-2 - Projected Enrollment 2024-2029 2023*2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Elementary School 4,397 4,469 4,499 4,528 4,557 4,613 4,669 Middle School 1,527 1,521 1,531 1,541 1,551 1,570 1,589 Mid-High School 1,447 1,521 1,531 1,541 1,551 1,570 1,589 High School 2,075 1,997 2,010 2,023 2,036 2,061 2,086 Total 9,446 9,508 9,571 9,633 9,695 9,814 9,933 *October 2023 Headcount Figure 3 - Projected Lake Stevens School District Enrollment 2024-2029 In summary, the Ratio Method estimates that headcount enrollment will total 9,933 students in 2029. This represents a 5.2% increase over 2023. The District accepts the Ratio Method estimate for its 2024 CFP planning. 2044 Enrollment Projection The District projects a 2044 student enrollment of 11,716 based on the Ratio method. (OSPI does not Lake Stevens School District 18 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 forecast enrollments beyond 2029). The forecast is based on the County’s OFM-based population forecast of 67,294 in the District. Although student enrollment projections beyond 2029 are highly speculative, they are useful for developing long-range comprehensive facilities plans. These long-range enrollment projections may also be used in determining future site acquisition needs. Table 5-3 - Projected 2044 Enrollment The 2044 estimate represents a 24% increase over 2023 enrollment levels. The total population in the Lake Stevens School District is forecasted to rise by 24%. The total enrollment estimate was broken down by grade span to evaluate long-term site acquisition needs for elementary, middle school, mid- high school and high school facilities. Enrollment by grade span was determined based on recent and projected enrollment trends at the elementary, middle, mid-high and high school levels. Again, the 2044 estimates are highly speculative and are used only for general planning purposes. Analysis of future facilities and capacity needs is provided in Section 6 of this Capital Facilities Plan. Grade Span Projected 2044 FTE Student Enrollment Elementary (K-5)5,467 Middle (6-7)1,883 Mid-High (8-9)1,878 High (10-12)2,488 District Total (K-12)11,716 Lake Stevens School District 19 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 SECTION 6: CAPITAL FACILITIES PLAN Existing Deficiencies Current enrollment at each grade level is identified in Table 5-2. The District currently (2023) has 977 unhoused students at the elementary level, 103 unhoused students at the middle school level and 78 unhoused students at the high school level. It has excess capacity (37) at the mid-high school. Facility Needs (2024-2029) Projected available student capacity was derived by subtracting projected student enrollment from 2023 permanent school capacity (excluding portables) for each of the six years in the forecast period (2024- 2029). The District’s enrollment projections in Table 5-2 have been applied to the existing capacity (Table 4-1). If no capacity improvements were to be made by the year 2029 the District would be over capacity at the elementary level by 1,249 students, 165 students at the middle school level, 105 students at the mid-high school and 89 students at the high school. These projected future capacity needs are depicted on Table 6-1. This table compares actual future space needs with the portion of those needs that are “growth related.” RCW 82.02 and Chapter 30.66C SCC mandate that new developments cannot be assessed impact fees to correct existing deficiencies. Thus, any capacity deficiencies existing in the District in 2021 must be deducted from the total projected deficiencies before impact fees are assessed. Table 6-1 - Projected Additional Capacity Needs 2024 – 2029 Grade Span 2023 *2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Elementary (K-5) Permanent capacity 3,420 3,420 3,420 3,420 3,420 3,420 3,420 Enrollment 4,397 4,469 4,498 4,528 4,557 4,613 4,669 Capacity Surplus/(Deficit)(977)(1,049)(1,078)(1,108)(1,137)(1,193)(1,249) Growth Related (72)(101)(131)(160)(216)(272) Middle School (6-7) Permanent capacity 1,424 1,424 1,424 1,424 1,424 1,424 1,424 Enrollment 1,527 1,521 1,531 1,541 1,551 1,570 1,589 Capacity Surplus/(Deficit)(103)(97)(107)(117)(127)(146)(165) Growth Related 0 (4)(14)(24)(43)(62) Mid-High (8-9) Permanent capacity 1,484 1,484 1,484 1,484 1,484 1,484 1,484 Enrollment 1,447 1,521 1,531 1,541 1,551 1,570 1,589 Capacity Surplus/(Deficit)37 (37)(47)(57)(67)(86)(105) Growth Related (74)(84)(94)(104)(123)(142) High School (10-12) Permanent capacity 1,997 1,997 1,997 1,997 1,997 1,997 1,997 Enrollment 2,075 1,997 2,010 2,023 2,036 2,061 2,086 Capacity Surplus/(Deficit)(78)0 (13)(26)(39)(64)(89) Growth Related 0 0 0 0 0 (11) * October 2023 enrollment Figures assume no capital improvements. Lake Stevens School District 20 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Forecast of Future Facility Needs through 2044 Additional elementary, middle, mid-high and high school classroom space will need to be constructed between 2022 and 2044 to meet the projected student population increase. The District will have to purchase additional school sites to facilitate growth during this time frame. By the end of the six-year forecast period (2027), additional permanent student capacity will be needed as follows: Table 6-2 –Additional Capacity Need 2029 & 2044 Planned Improvements (2024-2029) The following is a brief outline of those projects likely needed to accommodate unhoused students in the Lake Stevens School District through the Year 2029 based on OSPI enrollment projections. Elementary Schools: Based upon current enrollment estimates, elementary student population will increase to the level of requiring two new elementary schools. The CFP reflects acquisition of land for two schools and the construction of one new elementary and expansion of two existing elementaries in 2026 and 2027, although the exact timing is unknown at this time. Middle Schools: Based upon current enrollment estimates, middle school student population will increase to the level of requiring an expansion of an existing middle school. The CFP reflects the expansion of a middle school in 2027, although the exact timing is unknown at this time. Interim Classroom Facilities (Portables): Additional portables will be purchased in future years, as needed. However, it remains a District goal to house all students in permanent facilities. Site Acquisition and Improvements: Two additional elementary school sites will be needed in areas where student growth is taking place. The 10-acre Lochsloy property is in the far corner of the district, not in an area of growth and will not meet this need. Affordable land suitable for school facilities will be difficult to acquire. Support Facilities The District has added a satellite pupil transportation lot at Cavelero Mid High to support the growing needs for the district. This is a temporary measure until a site can be acquired and a new, larger pupil transportation center can be built. Capital Facilities Six-Year Finance Plan The Six Year Finance Plan shown on Table 6-3 demonstrates how the District intends to fund new construction and improvements to school facilities for the years 2024-2029. The financing components include bond issue(s), state match funds, school mitigation and impact fees. Grade Level 2024 Capacity 2029 Enrollment 2029 Additional Capacity Needed 2044 Enrollment 2044 Additional Capacity Needed Elementary 3,420 4,669 1,249 5,467 2,047 Middle School 1,424 1,589 165 1,883 459 Mid-High 1,484 1,589 105 1,878 394 High School 1,997 2,086 89 2,488 491 Total 8,325 9,933 1,608 11,716 3,391 Lake Stevens School District 21 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 The financing plan separates projects and portions of projects that add capacity from those that do not, since the latter are generally not appropriate for impact fee funding. The financing plan and impact fee calculation formula also differentiate between projects or portions of projects that address existing deficiencies (ineligible for impact fees) and those which address future growth-related needs. Lake Stevens School District 22 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Table 6-3 – 2024-2029 Capital Facilities Plan *Local Costs include funds currently available, impact fees to be collected and bonds or levies not yet approved. Estimated Project Cost by Year (In $Millions)2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Local Cost* State Match Improvements Adding Student Capacity Elementary Site Acquisition Acres 20 20 Purchase Cost 4.00$ 4.00$ 4.00$ -$ Capacity Addition 1300 1300 Relocatable Facilities Cost -$ -$ Capacity Addition 0 Construction Cost 148.90$ 70.70$ 219.60$ 187.10$ 32.50$ Capacity Addition 850 125 975 Middle Site Acquisition Acres - Purchase Cost -$ -$ -$ Capacity Addition - Relocatable Facilities Cost 0.25$ 0.25$ 0.50$ 0.50$ -$ Capacity Addition 50 50 100 Construction Cost 98.80$ 98.80$ 71.50$ 27.30$ Capacity Addition 200 200 Mid-High Site Acquisition Acres - Purchase Cost -$ -$ -$ Capacity Addition - Relocatable Facilities Cost 0.25$ 0.50$ 0.75$ 0.75$ -$ Capacity Addition 50 100 150 Construction Cost -$ -$ -$ Capacity Addition - High School Site Acquisition Acres - Purchase Cost -$ -$ -$ Capacity Addition - Relocatable Facilities Cost -$ -$ -$ Capacity Addition 0 Construction Cost 27.70$ 27.70$ 27.70$ -$ Capacity Addition 200 200 Student Capacity Total Cost -$ -$ 148.9$ 201.2$ -$ -$ 350.1$ 290.3$ 59.8$ Improvements Not Adding Student Capacity Elementary Construction Cost -$ -$ -$ Middle Construction Cost -$ -$ -$ Mid-High Construction Cost -$ -$ -$ High School Construction Cost -$ -$ -$ District-wide Improvements Construction Cost 13.30$ 7.40$ 7.00$ 27.70$ 27.70$ -$ Non-Student Capacity Total Cost -$ 13.30$ 7.40$ 7.00$ -$ -$ 27.70$ 27.70$ -$ Elementary (including land acquisition)-$ -$ 148.90$ 74.70$ -$ -$ 223.60$ 191.10$ 32.50$ Middle -$ 0.25$ 0.25$ 98.80$ -$ -$ 99.30$ 72.00$ 27.30$ Mid-High -$ 0.25$ -$ 0.50$ -$ -$ 0.75$ 0.75$ -$ High School -$ -$ -$ 27.70$ -$ -$ 27.70$ 27.70$ -$ District Wide -$ 13.30$ 7.40$ 7.00$ -$ -$ 27.70$ 27.70$ -$ Annual Total -$ 13.80$ 156.55$ 208.70$ -$ -$ 379.05$ 319.25$ 59.80$ Lake Stevens School District 23 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 General Obligation Bonds: Bonds are typically used to fund the construction of new schools and other capital improvement projects. A 60% voter approval is required to pass a bond. Bonds are then retired through collection of property taxes. A capital improvements bond for $116,000,000 was approved by the electorate in February 2016. Funds have been used to construct a new elementary school and modernize Lake Stevens High School, as well as fund other non-growth-related projects. The total costs of the growth-related projects outlined in Table 6-3 represent recent and current bids per information obtained through OSPI, the District’s architect and neighboring school districts that have recently or are planning to construct classroom space. An escalation factor of 5.5% per year has been applied out to 2029. State Match Funds: State Match Funds come from the Common School Construction Fund. Bonds are sold on behalf of the fund then retired from revenues accruing predominately from the sale of renewable resources (i.e., timber) from State school lands set aside by the Enabling Act of 1889. If these sources are insufficient to meet needs, the Legislature can appropriate funds or the State Board of Education can establish a moratorium on certain projects. School districts may qualify for State matching funds for a specific capital project. To qualify, a project must first meet State-established criteria of need. This is determined by a formula that specifies the amount of square footage the State will help finance to house the enrollment projected for the district. If a project qualifies, it can become part of a State prioritization system. This system prioritizes allocation of available funding resources to school districts based on a formula which calculates district assessed valuation per pupil relative to the whole State assessed valuation per pupil to establish the percent of the total project cost to be paid by the State for eligible projects. State Match Funds can only be applied to major school construction projects. Site acquisition and minor improvements are not eligible to receive matching funds from the State. Because state matching funds are dispersed after a district has paid its local share of the project, matching funds from the State may not be received by a school district until after a school has been constructed. In such cases, the District must “front fund” a project. That is, the District must finance the project with local funds. When the State share is finally disbursed (without accounting for escalation) the future District project is partially reimbursed. Because of the method of computing state match, the District has historically received approximately 30% of the actual cost of school construction in state matching funds. For its 2024 CFP, the District assumes a 30% match. School Impact Fees: Development impact fees have been adopted by several jurisdictions as a means of supplementing traditional funding sources for construction of public facilities needed to accommodate new development. School impact fees are generally collected by the permitting agency at the time building permits or certificates of occupancy are issued. Impact fees have been calculated utilizing the formula in Chapter 30.66C SCC. The resulting figures are based on the District’s cost per dwelling unit to purchase land for school sites, make site improvements, construct schools and purchase, install or relocate temporary facilities (portables). Credits have also Lake Stevens School District 24 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 been applied in the formula to account for state match funds to be reimbursed to the District and projected future property taxes to be paid by the owner of a dwelling unit. The costs of projects that do not add capacity or which address existing deficiencies have been eliminated from the variables used in the calculations. Only capacity improvements are eligible for impact fees. Shown on Table 6-4, since 2012 the Lake Stevens School District has collected and expended the following impact fees: Table 6-4 – Impact Fee Revenue and Expenditures The law allows ten years for collected dollars to be spent. By ordinance, new developments cannot be assessed impact fees to correct existing deficiencies. Thus, existing capacity deficiencies must be deducted from the total projected deficiencies in the calculation of impact fees. The financing plan separates projects and portions of projects that add capacity from those that do not, since non-capacity improvements are not eligible for impact fee funding. The financing plan and impact fee calculation also differentiate between projects or portions of projects that address existing deficiencies (ineligible for impact fees) and those which address future growth-related needs (Table 6- 1). From this process, the District can develop a plan that can be translated into a bond issue package for submittal to District voters, if deemed appropriate. Table 6-5 presents an estimate of the permanent capacity impacts of the proposed capital construction projects. This does not take into consideration temporary facilities for the reasons stated earlier. Year Revenue Expenditure 2023 $ 2,782,209 $ 1,889,623 2022 $ 3,007,540 $ 2,204,707 2021 $ 3,855,167 $ 4,334,823 2020 $ 4,438,497 $ 5,235,528 2019 $ 4,483,964 $ 4,177,428 2018 $ 1,760,609 $ 4,076,918 2016 $ 1,595,840 $ 1,872,014 2014 $ 698,188 $ 1,389,784 2013 $ 1,005,470 $ 22,304 2012 $ 1,526,561 $ - Total $25,154,045 $25,203,129 Lake Stevens School District 25 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Table 6-5 – Projected Growth-Related Capacity (Deficit) After Programmed Improvements Impact Fee Calculation Criteria 1. Site Acquisition Cost Element Site Size: The site size given the optimum acreage for each school type based on studies of existing school sites OSPI standards. Generally, districts will require 11-15 acres for an elementary school; 25-30 acres for a middle school or junior high school; and 40 acres or more for a high school. Actual school sites may vary in size depending on the size of parcels available for sale and other site development 2023 Elementary Middle Mid-High High School Existing Capacity 3,420 1,424 1,484 1,997 Programmed Improvement Capacity Capacity After Improvement 3,420 1,424 1,484 1,997 Current Enrollment 4,397 1,527 1,447 2,075 Surplus (Deficit) After Improvement (977)(103)37 (78) 2024 Elementary Middle Mid-High High School Existing Capacity 3,420 1,424 1,484 1,997 Programmed Improvement Capacity 0 0 0 0 Capacity After Improvement 3,420 1,424 1,484 1,997 Projected Enrollment 4,469 1,521 1,521 1,997 Surplus (Deficit) After Improvement (1,049)(97)(37)0 2025 Elementary Middle Mid-High High School Existing Capacity 3,420 1,424 1,484 1,997 Programmed Improvement Capacity 0 0 0 0 Capacity After Improvement 3,420 1,424 1,484 1,997 Projected Enrollment 4,498 1,531 1,531 2,010 Surplus (Deficit) After Improvement (1,078)(107)(47)(13) 2026 Elementary Middle Mid-High High School Existing Capacity 3,420 1,424 1,484 1,997 Programmed Improvement Capacity 850 200 0 0 Capacity After Improvement 4,270 1,624 1,484 1,997 Projected Enrollment 4,528 1,541 1,541 2,023 Surplus (Deficit) After Improvement (258)83 (57)(26) 2027 Elementary Middle Mid-High High School Existing Capacity 4,270 1,624 1,484 1,997 Programmed Improvement Capacity 125 0 0 200 Capacity After Improvement 4,395 1,624 1,484 2,197 Projected Enrollment 4,557 1,551 1,551 2,036 Surplus (Deficit) After Improvement*(162)73 (67)161 2028 Elementary Middle Mid-High High School Existing Capacity 4,395 1,624 1,484 2,197 Programmed Improvement Capacity 0 0 0 0 Capacity After Improvement 4,395 1,624 1,484 2,197 Projected Enrollment 4,613 1,570 1,570 2,061 Surplus (Deficit) After Improvement*(218)54 (86)136 2029 Elementary Middle Mid-High High School Existing Capacity 4,395 1,624 1,484 2,197 Programmed Improvement Capacity 0 0 0 0 Capacity After Improvement 4,395 1,624 1,484 2,197 Projected Enrollment 4,669 1,589 1,589 2,086 Surplus (Deficit) After Improvement (274)35 (105)111 Lake Stevens School District 26 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 constraints, such as wetlands. It also varies based on the need for athletic fields adjacent to the school along with other specific planning factors. This space for site size on the Variable Table contains a number only when the District plans to acquire additional land during the six-year planning period, 2024 - 2029. As noted previously, the District will need to acquire two additional elementary school sites between 2024 and 2029. Average Land Cost Per Acre: The cost per acre is based on estimates of land costs within the District, based either on recent land purchases or by its knowledge of prevailing costs in the particular real estate market. Prices per acre will vary throughout the County and will be heavily influenced by the urban vs. rural setting of the specific district and the location of the planned school site. The Lake Stevens School District estimates its vacant land costs to be $200,000 per acre. Until a site is located for acquisition, the actual purchase price is unknown. Developed sites, which sometimes must be acquired adjacent to existing school sites, can cost well over the $200,000 per acre figure. Facility Design Capacity (Student FTE): Facility design capacities reflect the District’s optimum number of students each school type is designed to accommodate. These figures are based on actual design studies of optimum floor area for new school facilities. The Lake Stevens School District designs new elementary schools to accommodate 650 students, new middle schools 750 students and new high schools 2,000 students. Student Factor: The student factor (or student generation rate) is the average number of students generated by each housing type – in this case: single-family detached dwellings and multiple- family dwellings. Multiple-family dwellings, which may be rental or owner-occupied units within structures containing two or more dwelling units, were broken out into townhomes/multiplexes and multifamily apartment and condominium units. Pursuant to a requirement of Chapter 30.66C SCC, each school district was required to conduct student generation studies within their jurisdictions. A description of this methodology is contained in Appendix C. FLO Analytics performed the analysis. The student generation rates for the Lake Stevens School District are shown on Table 6-6. Table 6-6 – Student Generation Rates Note: Townhomes were included in the Multifamily 2+ category prior to 2024. The table also shows the Student Generation rates from the 2022 CFP. Per the report from FLO Analytics: “The multifamily category includes all structures with five or more housing units and Student Generation Rates Elementary Middle Mid-High High Total Single Family Detached 0.370 0.110 0.090 0.117 0.687 Townhome/Multiplex (2,3,4)0.086 0.025 0.012 0.018 0.141 Multifamily, 0-1 bedroom 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Multifamily, 2+ bedroom 0.035 0.015 0.004 0.027 0.081 Student Generation Rates Elementary Middle Mid-High High Total Single Family 0.348 0.091 0.090 0.101 0.630 Multiple Family, 0-1 Bedroom 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Multiple Family, 2+ Bedroom 0.092 0.031 0.000 0.023 0.146 2022 2024 Lake Stevens School District 27 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 structures with 3–4 housing units that are stacked. The housing inventory does not include the information needed to differentiate between MF units with 2+ bedrooms and 1 bedroom or less; therefore, the MF rate includes all MF housing units and only applies to the "Multifamily 2+ bedrooms" category in Snohomish County code.” After several years of decline in the student generation rates, the 2024 report shows an increase in most grade levels for most housing types. 2. School Construction Cost Variables Additional Building Capacity: These figures are the actual capacity additions to the Lake Stevens School District that will occur because of improvements listed on Table 6-3 (Capital Facilities Plan). Current Facility Square Footage: These numbers are taken from Tables 4-1 and 4-2. They are used in combination with the “Existing Portables Square Footage” to apportion the impact fee amounts between permanent and temporary capacity figures in accordance with Chapter 30.66C. SCC. Estimated Facility Construction Cost: The estimated facility construction cost is based on planned costs or on actual costs of recently constructed schools. The facility cost is the total cost for construction projects as defined on Table 6-3, including only capacity related improvements and adjusted to the “growth related” factor. Projects or portions of projects that address existing deficiencies (which are those students who are un-housed as of October 2023) are not included in the calculation of facility cost for impact fee calculation. Facility construction costs also include the off-site development costs. Costs vary with each site and may include such items as sewer line extensions, water lines, off-site road and frontage improvements. Off- site development costs are not covered by State Match Funds. Off-site development costs vary and can represent 10% or more of the total building construction cost. 3. Relocatable Facilities Cost Element Impact fees may be collected to allow acquisition of portables to help relieve capacity deficiencies on a temporary basis. The cost allocated to new development must be growth related and must be in proportion to the current permanent versus temporary space allocations by the district. Existing Units: This is the total number of existing portables in use by the district as reported on Table 4-2. New Facilities Required Through 2029: This is the estimated number of portables to be acquired. Cost Per Unit: This is the average cost to purchase and set up a portable. It includes site preparation but does not include moveable furnishings in the unit. Relocatable Facilities Cost: This is simply the total number of needed units multiplied by the cost per unit. The number is then adjusted to the “growth-related” factor. For districts, such as Lake Stevens, which do not credit any portable capacity to the permanent capacity total (see Table 4-1), this number is not directly applicable to the fee calculation and is for information only. The impact fee allows a general fee calculation for portables; however, the amount is adjusted to the proportion of total square footage in portables to the total square footage of permanent and portable space in the district. Lake Stevens School District 28 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 4. Fee Credit Variables Construction Cost Allocation: This number is used by OSPI as a guideline for determining the area cost allowance for new school construction. The index is an average of a seven-city building cost index for commercial and factory buildings in Washington State and is adjusted every year for inflation. The current allocation is $375.00 (July 2024) up from $246.83 in 2022. State Match Percentage: The State match percentage is the proportion of funds that are provided to the school districts, for specific capital projects, from the State’s Common School Construction Fund. These funds are disbursed based on a formula which calculates the District’s assessed valuation per pupil relative to the whole State assessed valuation per pupil to establish the percentage of the total project to be paid by the State. Because of the method of computing state match, the District has historically received approximately 30% of the actual cost of school construction in state matching funds. For its 2024 CFP, the District assumes a 30% match. 5. Tax Credit Variables Under Chapter 30.66C SCC, a credit is granted to new development to account for taxes that will be paid to the school district over the next ten years. The credit is calculated using a “present value” formula. Interest Rate (20-year GO Bond): This is the interest rate of return on a 20-year General Obligation Bond and is derived from the bond buyer index. The current assumed interest rate is 3.48%. Levy Rate (in mils): The Property Tax Levy Rate (for bonds) is determined by dividing the District’s average capital property tax rate by one thousand. The current levy rate for the Lake Stevens School District is 0.00120. Average Assessed Value: This figure is based on the District’s average assessed value for each type of dwelling unit (single-family and multiple family). The average assessed values are based on estimates made by the County’s Planning and Development Services Department utilizing information from the Assessor’s files. The current average assessed value for 2024 for single-family detached residential dwellings is $621,496, up from $485,760 in 2020 and $423,231 in 2020); $175,173 for one-bedroom multi-family unit ($169,461 in 2022; $125,314 in 2020), and $242,411 for townhomes/multi-plexes and two or more bedroom multi-family units (2022: $239,226; 2020: $178,051). 6. Adjustments Growth Related Capacity Percentage: Only the portions of projects addressing new unhoused need are included in the impact fee calculations. The percentage is determined by the number of new unhoused students divided by the number of students for which the project would provide additional capacity. Fee Discount: In accordance with Chapter 30.66C SCC, all fees calculated using the above factors are to be reduced by 50%. Lake Stevens School District 29 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Table 6-7 - Impact Fee Variables Criteria Elementary Middle Mid-High High Growth-Related Capacity Deficiencies 272 62 142 11 Discount (Snohomish County, Lake Stevens and Marysville)50%50%50%50% Student Factor Elementary Middle Mid-High High Single Family Detached 0.370 0.110 0.090 0.117 Townhome/Multiplex 0.086 0.025 0.012 0.018 Multifamily, 0-1 bedrooms 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Multifamily, 2+ bedrooms 0.035 0.015 0.004 0.027 Site Acquisition Cost Element Elementary Middle Mid-High High Site Needs (acres)20 0 0 0 Growth Related 4.18 0 0 0 Cost Per Acre $200,000.00 $200,000.00 $200,000.00 $200,000.00 Additional Capacity 1300 0 0 0 Growth Related 272 62 142 11 School Construction Cost Element Elementary Middle Mid-High High Estimated Facility Construction Cost $219,600,000 $98,800,000 $0 $27,700,000 Growth Related $61,262,769 $30,628,000 $0 $1,523,500 Additional Capacity 975 200 0 200 Growth Related 272 62 142 11 Current Facility Square Footage 401,344 177,722 225,612 312,598 Relocatable Facilities Cost Element Elementary Middle Mid-High High Relocatable Facilities Cost $250,000 $250,000 $250,000 $250,000 Growth Related $250,000 $250,000 $250,000 $250,000 Relocatable Facilities Capacity/Unit 25 27 27 27 Growth Related 25 27 27 27 Existing Portable Square Footage 62,720 17,920 1,792 0 State Match Credit Elementary Middle Mid-High High Cost Construction Allocation $375.00 $375.00 $375.00 $375.00 School Space per Student (OSPI)90 117 117 130 State Match Percentage 30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0% Tax Payment Credit Elementary Middle Mid-High High Interest Rate 3.48%3.48%3.48%3.48% Loan Payoff (Years)10 10 10 10 Property Tax Levy Rate (Bonds)0.00120 0.00120 0.00120 0.00120 Average AV per DU Type SFD Small MF Large MF $621,496 $175,173 $242,411 "small unit""large unit" Lake Stevens School District 30 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Proposed Impact Fee Schedule Using the variables and formula described, impact fees proposed for the Lake Stevens School District are summarized in Table 6-8 (refer to Appendix A for worksheets). Table 6-8 - Calculated Impact Fees Housing Type Impact Fee Per Unit Discounted (50%) Impact Fee Per Unit Single Family Detached $27,460 $13,730 Townhome/Multiplex $5,253 $2,627 Multifamily, 0-1 bedroom $0 $0 Multifamily, 2+ bedrooms $1,481 $741 Lake Stevens School District 31 Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Appendix A Impact Fee Calculations Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 acres needed 4.18 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)1,300 x student factor 0.370 =$238 (elementary) acres needed 0.00 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.110 =$0 (middle) acres needed 0.00 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.090 =$0 (mid-high) acres needed 0.00 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.117 =$0 (high school) =$238 SCHOOL CONSTRUCTION COST total const. cost $61,262,769 /capacity (# students)975 x student factor 0.370 =$23,248 (elementary) total const. cost $30,628,000 /capacity (# students)200 x student factor 0.110 =$16,845 (middle) total const. cost $0 /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.090 =$0 (mid-high) total const. cost $1,523,500 /capacity (# students)200 x student factor 0.117 $891 (high school) Subtotal $40,985 Total Square Feet 1,117,276 1,199,708 =93.13% =$38,169 Portable Cost 250,000$ /25 facility size x student factor 0.370 =$3,700 (elementary) Portable Cost 250,000$ /27 facility size x student factor 0.110 =$1,019 (middle) Portable Cost 250,000$ /27 facility size x student factor 0.090 =$833 (mid-high) Portable Cost 250,000$ /27 facility size x student factor 0.117 =$1,083 (high school) Subtotal $6,635 Total Square Feet 82,432 1,199,708 =6.87% =$456 IMPACT FEE WORKSHEET LAKE STEVENS SCHOOL DISTRICT SINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED RELOCATABLE FACILITIES COST (PORTABLES) SITE ACQUISITION COST TOTAL SITE ACQUISITION COST TOTAL RELOCATABLE COST ELEMENT / Total Square Feet of Portable Space (District ) of School Facilities (000) / Total Square Feet of Permanent Space (District ) of School Facilities (000) TOTAL FACILITY CONSTRUCTION COST Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 CCA Index 375.00$ x OSPI Allowance 90.00 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.370 =$3,746 (elementary) CCA Index 375.00$ x OSPI Allowance 117.00 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.110 =$1,448 (middle) CCA Index No projects x OSPI Allowance 117.00 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.090 =$0 (mid-high) CCA Index Not eligible x OSPI Allowance 130.00 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.117 =$0 (high school) =$5,194 [((1+ interest rate 3.48%) ^10 3.48%x (1 + interest rate 3.48%)^10 0.00120 assessed value 621,496.00 tax payment credit =6,209$ $238 $38,169 $456 ($5,194) ($6,209) Non-Discounted 50% Discount $27,460 $13,730 TAX PAYMENT CREDIT years to pay off bond) - 1] /[ interest rate years to pay off bond ] x IMPACT FEE CALCULATION SITE ACQUISITION COST FACILITY CONSTRUCTION COST RELOCATABLE FACILITIES COST (PORTABLES) capital levy rate x SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL FINAL IMPACT FEE PER UNIT (LESS TAX PAYMENT CREDIT) STATE MATCH CREDIT TOTAL STATE MATCH CREDIT (LESS STATE MATCH CREDIT) CREDIT AGAINST COST CALCULATION -- MANDATORY Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 TOWNHOMES AND MULTIPLEXES acres needed 4.18 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)1300 x student factor 0.086 =$55 (elementary) acres needed 0 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.025 =$0 (middle) acres needed 0 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.012 =$0 (mid-high) acres needed 0 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.018 =$0 (high school) =$55 SCHOOL CONSTRUCTION COST total const. cost $61,262,769 /capacity (# students)975 x student factor 0.086 =$5,404 (elementary) total const. cost $30,628,000 /capacity (# students)200 x student factor 0.025 =$3,829 (middle) total const. cost $0 /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.012 =$0 (mid-high) total const. cost $1,523,500 /capacity (# students)200 x student factor 0.018 =$137 (high school) Subtotal $9,369 Total Square Feet 1,117,276 1,199,708 =93.13% =8,726$ Portable Cost 250,000$ /25 facility size x student factor 0.086 =$860 (elementary) Portable Cost 250,000$ /27 facility size x student factor 0.025 =$231 (middle) Portable Cost 250,000$ /27 facility size x student factor 0.012 =$111 (mid-high) Portable Cost 250,000$ /27 facility size x student factor 0.018 =$167 (high school) Subtotal $1,369 Total Square Feet 82,432 1,199,708 =6.87% =$94 IMPACT FEE WORKSHEET TOTAL FACILITY CONSTRUCTION COST RELOCATABLE FACILITIES COST (PORTABLES) / Total Square Feet TOTAL SITE ACQUISITION COST LAKE STEVENS SCHOOL DISTRICT SITE ACQUISITION COST / Total Square Feet of Permanent Space (District ) of School Facilities (000) of Portable Space (District ) of School Facilities (000) TOTAL RELOCATABLE COST ELEMENT Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 BOECKH Index 375.00$ x OSPI Allowance 90 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.086 =$871 (elementary) BOECKH Index 375.00$ x OSPI Allowance 117 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.025 =$329 (middle) BOECKH Index No projects x OSPI Allowance 117 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.012 =$0 (mid-high) BOECKH Index Not eligible x OSPI Allowance 130 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.018 =$0 (high school) =$1,200 [((1+ interest rate 3.48%) ^10 3.48%x (1 + interest rate 3.48%)^10 0.0012 assessed value 242,411.00 tax payment credit =(2,422)$ $55 $8,726 $94 ($1,200) ($2,422) Non-Discounted 50% Discount $5,253 $2,627 (LESS STATE MATCH CREDIT) (LESS TAX PAYMENT CREDIT) TOWNHOMES AND MULTI-PLEXES FINAL IMPACT FEE PER UNIT IMPACT FEE CALCULATION capital levy rate x SITE ACQUISITION COST FACILITY CONSTRUCTION COST RELOCATABLE FACILITIES COST (PORTABLES) years to pay off bond ] x STATE MATCH CREDIT [ interest rate years to pay off bond) - 1] / TOTAL STATE MATCH CREDIT TAX PAYMENT CREDIT CREDIT AGAINST COST CALCULATION -- MANDATORY Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 MULTIPLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL, 0-1 BEDROOMS acres needed 4.18 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)1300 x student factor 0.000 =$0 (elementary) acres needed 0 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.000 $0 (middle) acres needed 0 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.000 =$0 (mid-high) acres needed 0 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.000 =$0 (high school) =$0 SCHOOL CONSTRUCTION COST total const. cost $61,262,769 /capacity (# students)975 x student factor 0.000 =$0 (elementary) total const. cost $30,628,000 /capacity (# students)200 x student factor 0.000 =$0 (middle) total const. cost $0 /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.000 =$0 (mid-high) total const. Cost $1,523,500 /capacity (# students)200 x student factor 0.000 =$0 (high school) $0 Total Square Feet 1,117,276 1,199,708 =93.13% =-$ Portable Cost 250,000$ /25 facility size x student factor 0.000 =$0 (elementary) Portable Cost 250,000$ /27 facility size x student factor 0.000 =$0 (middle) Portable Cost 250,000$ /27 facility size x student factor 0.000 =$0 (mid-high) Portable Cost 250,000$ /27 facility size x student factor 0.000 =$0 (high school) Subtotal $0 Total Square Feet 82,432 1,199,708 =6.87% =$0TOTAL RELOCATABLE COST ELEMENT IMPACT FEE WORKSHEET LAKE STEVENS SCHOOL DISTRICT SITE ACQUISITION COST TOTAL SITE ACQUISITION COST / Total Square Feet of Permanent Space (District ) of School Facilities (000) TOTAL FACILITY CONSTRUCTION COST RELOCATABLE FACILITIES COST (PORTABLES) / Total Square Feet of Portable Space (District ) of School Facilities (000) Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 BOECKH Index 375.00$ x OSPI Allowance 90 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.000 =$0 (elementary) BOECKH Index 375.00$ x OSPI Allowance 117 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.000 =$0 (middle) BOECKH Index No projects x OSPI Allowance 117 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.000 =$0 (mid-high) BOECKH Index Not eligible x OSPI Allowance 130 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.000 =$0 (high school) =$0 [((1+ interest rate 3.48%) ^10 3.48%x (1 + interest rate 3.48%)^10 0.00120 assessed value 175,173.00 tax payment credit =1,750$ $0 $0 $0 $0 ($1,750) Non-Discounted 50% Discount $0 $0 (LESS STATE MATCH CREDIT) (LESS TAX PAYMENT CREDIT) MULTIPLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL -- 0-1 BDRM FINAL IMPACT FEE PER UNIT RELOCATABLE FACILITIES COST (PORTABLES) CREDIT AGAINST COST CALCULATION -- MANDATORY STATE MATCH CREDIT TOTAL STATE MATCH CREDIT TAX PAYMENT CREDIT years to pay off bond) - 1] /[ interest rate years to pay off bond ] x capital levy rate x IMPACT FEE CALCULATION SITE ACQUISITION COST FACILITY CONSTRUCTION COST Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 MULTIPLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL, 2+ BEDROOMS acres needed 4.18 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)1300 x student factor 0.035 =$23 (elementary) acres needed 0 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.015 $0 (middle) acres needed 0 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.004 =$0 (mid-high) acres needed 0 x 200,000$ /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.027 =$0 (high school) =$23 SCHOOL CONSTRUCTION COST total const. cost $61,262,769 /capacity (# students)975 x student factor 0.035 =$2,199 (elementary) total const. cost $30,628,000 /capacity (# students)200 x student factor 0.015 =$2,297 (middle) total const. cost $0 /capacity (# students)0 x student factor 0.004 =$0 (mid-high) total const. Cost $1,523,500 /capacity (# students)200 x student factor 0.027 =$206 (high school) $4,702 Total Square Feet 1,117,276 1,199,708 =93.13% =4,379$ Portable Cost 250,000$ /25 facility size x student factor 0.035 =$350 (elementary) Portable Cost 250,000$ /27 facility size x student factor 0.015 =$139 (middle) Portable Cost 250,000$ /27 facility size x student factor 0.004 =$37 (mid-high) Portable Cost 250,000$ /27 facility size x student factor 0.027 =$250 (high school) Subtotal $776 Total Square Feet 82,432 1,199,708 =6.87% =$53 IMPACT FEE WORKSHEET TOTAL SITE ACQUISITION COST LAKE STEVENS SCHOOL DISTRICT SITE ACQUISITION COST RELOCATABLE FACILITIES COST (PORTABLES) / Total Square Feet of Permanent Space (District ) of School Facilities (000) TOTAL FACILITY CONSTRUCTION COST / Total Square Feet of Portable Space (District ) of School Facilities (000) TOTAL RELOCATABLE COST ELEMENT Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 BOECKH Index 375.00$ x OSPI Allowance 90 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.035 =$354 (elementary) BOECKH Index 375.00$ x OSPI Allowance 117 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.015 =$197 (middle) BOECKH Index No projects x OSPI Allowance 117 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.004 =$0 (mid-high) BOECKH Index Not eligible x OSPI Allowance 130 x State Match %30.00%x student factor 0.027 =$0 (high school) =$552 [((1+ interest rate 3.48%) ^10 3.48%x (1 + interest rate 3.48%)^10 0.00120 assessed value 242,411.00 tax payment credit =2,422$ $23 $4,379 $53 ($552) ($2,422) Non-Discounted 50% Discount $1,481 $741MULTIPLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL -- 2 BDRM OR MORE FINAL IMPACT FEE PER UNIT STATE MATCH CREDIT CREDIT AGAINST COST CALCULATION -- MANDATORY (LESS TAX PAYMENT CREDIT) SITE ACQUISITION COST FACILITY CONSTRUCTION COST RELOCATABLE FACILITIES COST (PORTABLES) (LESS STATE MATCH CREDIT) years to pay off bond ] x capital levy rate x IMPACT FEE CALCULATION TOTAL STATE MATCH CREDIT TAX PAYMENT CREDIT years to pay off bond) - 1] /[ interest rate Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Appendix B OSPI Enrollment Forecasting Methodology Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 OSPI PROJECTION OF ENROLLMENT DATA Cohort-Survival or Grade-Succession Technique Development of a long-range school-building program requires a careful forecast of school enrollment indicating the projected number of children who will attend school each year. The following procedures are suggested for determining enrollment projections: 1. Enter in the lower left corner of the rectangle for each year the number of pupils actually enrolled in each grade on October 1, as reported on the October Report of School District Enrollment, Form M-70, column A. (For years prior to October 1, 1965, enter pupils actually enrolled as reported in the county superintendent’s annual report, Form A-1.) 2. In order to arrive at enrollment projections for kindergarten and/or grade one pupils, determine the percent that the number of such pupils each year was of the number shown for the immediately preceding year. Compute an average of the percentages, enter it in the column headed “Ave. % of Survival”, and apply such average percentage in projecting kindergarten and/or grade one enrollment for the next six years. 3. For grade two and above determine the percent of survival of the enrollment in each grade for each year to the enrollment. In the next lower grade during the preceding year and place this percentage in the upper right corner of the rectangle. (For example, if there were 75 pupils in actual enrollment in grade one on October 1, 1963, and 80 pupils were in actual enrollment in grade two on October 1, 1964, the percent of survival would be 80/75, or 106.7%. If the actual enrollment on October 1, 1965, in grade three had further increased to 100 pupils, the percent of survival to grade three would be 100/80 or 125 %.). Compute an average of survival percentages for each year for each grade and enter it in the column, “Ave. % of Survival”. 4. In order to determine six-year enrollment projections for grade two and above, multiply the enrollment in the next lower grade during the preceding year by 7 the average percent of survival. For example, if, on October 1 of the last year of record, there were 100 students in grade one and the average percent of survival to grade two was 105, then 105% of 100 would result in a projection of 105 students in grade two on October 1 of the succeeding year. 5. If, after calculating the “Projected Enrollment”, there are known factors which will further influence the projections, a statement should be prepared showing the nature of those factors, involved and their anticipated effect upon any portion of the calculated projection. *Kindergarten students are projected based on a regression line. Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Elementary K 672 686 683 680 677 674 671 1 722 696 710 707 704 701 698 2 826 736 710 724 721 718 715 3 727 840 749 722 736 733 730 4 699 741 856 763 736 750 747 5 751 712 755 872 777 750 764 K-5 Headcount 4397 4411 4463 4468 4351 4326 4325 Middle 6 768 767 728 772 891 794 766 7 759 777 776 736 781 901 803 6-7 Headcount 1527 1544 1504 1508 1672 1695 1569 Mid High Grade 8 717 770 789 788 747 793 914 Grade 9 730 716 769 788 787 746 792 8-9 Headcount 1447 1486 1558 1576 1534 1539 1706 Sr. High Grade 10 752 722 708 760 779 778 738 Grade 11 685 694 666 653 701 719 718 Grade 12 638 660 669 642 630 676 693 10-12 Headcount 2075 2076 2043 2055 2110 2173 2149 K-12 Headcount 9446 9517 9568 9607 9667 9733 9749 Source: Snohomish County, Lake Stevens School District and OSPI Table C-1 LAKE STEVENS SCHOOL DISTRICT STUDENT ENROLLMENT BY GRADE SPAN 2023-2029 School Type Grade Level School Year Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Appendix C OFM Ratio Method – 2044 Enrollment Estimate Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Enrollment Forecasts OSPI and OFM Ratio Methods The Growth Management Act requires that capital facilities plans for schools consider enrollment forecasts that are related to official population forecasts for the district. The OFM ratio method computes past enrollment as a percentage of past population and then estimates how those percentage trends will continue. Snohomish County prepares the population estimates by distributing official estimates from the Washington Office of Financial Management (OFM) to the school district level. SCC 30.66C requires that these official OFM/County population forecasts be used in the capital facilities plans. Each district is responsible for estimating the assumed percentage of population that, in turn, will translate into enrollments. The District’s assumed percentage trends are applied to these County population forecasts. This is known as the Ratio Method. The District then decides to use either it or the six-year forecast (2024- 2029) prepared by the State Office of the Superintendent of Public Instructions (OSPI) for use in the facilities plan. Whichever is used for the 2024-2029 planning period, OSPI does not forecast enrollments for Year 2044, so the Ratio Method is used for that purpose, regardless. Year Population Enrollment Ratio 2010 39,977 7,913 19.79% 2011 41,025 7,985 19.46% 2012 42,074 7,987 18.98% 2013 43,122 8,126 18.84% 2014 44,171 8,253 18.68% 2015 45,219 8,392 18.56% 2016 46,267 8,611 18.61% 2017 47,316 8,646 18.27% 2018 48,364 8,875 18.35% 2019 49,413 9,200 18.62% 2020 50,461 8,854 17.55% 2021 52,181 9,325 17.87% 2022 53,450 9,339 17.47% 2023 54,256 9,446 17.41% 2024 54,614 9,508 17.41% 2025 54,972 9,571 17.41% 2026 55,329 9,633 17.41% 2027 55,687 9,695 17.41% 2028 56,370 9,814 17.41% 2029 57,052 9,933 17.41% 2044 67,294 11,716 17.41% 2024 Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 The table above shows actual enrollments and population estimates from 2010-2023, and their resulting ratio (the 2010 and 2020 population totals are official census figures). Until 2015 the trend was a declining ratio of students to population. The ratio leveled off in the years 2016 through 2019. In 2020, school closures and online learning caused enrollment to drop. Then enrollment rebounded in 2021 and returned to pre-pandemic levels. The district projects that the ratio will level off for the projection period and average around 17.41%. 2044 Enrollment Estimate The District’s 2024 CFP ratio of 17.41% is used for the 2044 enrollment estimate. Using that number against the County’s 2044 population estimate of 67,294 produces a projected enrollment number of 11,716 students in 2044. Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Appendix D Student Generation Rates Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Appendix E Board Resolution Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Appendix F Determination of Nonsignificance Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Appendix G Snohomish County General Policy Plan -- Appendix F Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Appendix F REVIEW CRITERIA FOR SCHOOL DISTRICT CAPITAL FACILITY PLANS Required Plan Contents 1. Future Enrollment Forecasts by Grade Span, including: - a 6-year forecast (or more) to support the financing program; - a description of the forecasting methodology and justification for its consistency with OFM population forecasts used in the county's comprehensive plan. 2. Inventory of Existing Facilities, including: - the location and capacity of existing schools; - a description of educational standards and a clearly defined minimum level of service such as classroom size, school size, use of portables, etc.; - the location and description of all district-owned or leased sites (if any) and properties; - a description of support facilities, such as administrative centers, transportation and maintenance yards and facilities, etc.; and - information on portables, including numbers, locations, remaining useful life (as appropriate to educational standards), etc. 3. Forecast of Future Facility Needs, including: - identification of new schools and/or school additions needed to address existing deficiencies and to meet demands of projected growth over the next 6 years; and - the number of additional portable classrooms needed. 4. Forecast of Future Site Needs, including: - the number, size, and general location of needed new school sites. 5. Financing Program (6-year minimum Planning Horizon) - estimated cost of specific construction and site acquisition and development projects proposed to address growth-related needs; - projected schedule for completion of these projects; and - proposed sources of funding, including impact fees (if proposed), local bond issues (both approved and proposed), and state matching funds. 6. Impact Fee Support Data (where applicable), including: - an explanation of the calculation methodology, including description of key variables and their computation; - definitions and sources of data for all inputs into the fee calculation, indicating that it: a) is accurate and reliable and that any sample data is statistically valid; b) accurately reflects projected costs in the 6-year financing program; and - a proposed fee schedule that reflects expected student generation rates from, at minimum, the following residential unit types: single-family, multifamily/studio or 1-bedroom, and multi-family/2- bedroom or more. Lake Stevens School District Capital Facilities Plan 2024-2029 Plan Performance Criteria 1. School facility plans must meet the basic requirements set down in RCW 36.70A (the Growth Management Act). Districts proposing to use impact fees as a part of their financing program must also meet the requirements of RCW 82.02. 2. Where proposed, impact fees must utilize a calculation methodology that meets the conditions and tests of RCW 82.02. 3. Enrollment forecasts should utilize established methods and should produce results which are not inconsistent with the OFM population forecasts used in the county comprehensive plan. Each plan should also demonstrate that it is consistent with the 20-year forecast in the land use element of the county's comprehensive plan. 4. The financing plan should separate projects and portions of projects which add capacity from those which do not, since the latter are generally not appropriate for impact fee funding. The financing plan and/or the impact fee calculation formula must also differentiate between projects or portions of projects which address existing deficiencies (ineligible for impact fees) and those which address future growth- related needs. 5 Plans should use best-available information from recognized sources, such as the U.S. Census or the Puget Sound Regional Council. District-generated data may be used if it is derived through statistically reliable methodologies. 6. Districts which propose the use of impact fees should identify in future plan updates alternative funding sources in the event that impact fees are not available due to action by the state, county or the cities within their district boundaries. 7. Repealed effective January 2, 2000. Plan Review Procedures 1. District capital facility plan updates should be submitted to the County Planning and Development Services Department for review prior to formal adoption by the school district. 2. Each school district planning to expand its school capacity must submit to the county an updated capital facilities plan at least every 2 years. Proposed increases in impact fees must be submitted as part of an update to the capital facilities plan and will be considered no more frequently than once a year. 3. Each school district will be responsible for conducting any required SEPA reviews on its capital facilities plan prior to its adoption, in accordance with state statutes and regulations. 4. School district capital facility plans and plan updates must be submitted no later than 180 calendar days prior to their desired effective date. 5. District plans and plan updates must include a resolution or motion from the district school board adopting the plan before it will become effective. LAKEWOOD SCHOOL DISTRICT NO. 306 CAPITAL FACILITIES PLAN 2024-2029 Adopted: July 17, 2024 LAKEWOOD SCHOOL DISTRICT NO. 306 CAPITAL FACILITIES PLAN 2024-2029 BOARD OF DIRECTORS CATHERINE “SANDY” GOTTS, PRESIDENT LEAH TOCCO DANA KRIEGER STEVEN LARSON DAWN TAYLOR SUPERINTENDENT DR. ERIN MURPHY For information regarding the Lakewood School District Capital Facilities Plan, contact the Office of the Superintendent, Lakewood School District, 17110 16th Drive NE, Marysville, WA 98271. (Tel: (360) 652-4500) TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Section 1. Introduction ..............................................................................................................1 Section 2. District Educational Program Standards ..................................................................4 Section 3. Capital Facilities Inventory ......................................................................................8 Section 4. Student Enrollment Projections .............................................................................11 Section 5. Capital Facilities Needs .........................................................................................14 Section 6. Capital Facilities Financing Plan ...........................................................................17 Section 7. School Impact Fees ................................................................................................20 Appendix A ……………………………………………………Population and Enrollment Data Appendix B ………………………………………………...Student Generation Factor Review Appendix C …………………………………………………….School Impact Fee Calculations INTRODUCTION A. Purpose of the Capital Facilities Plan The Washington State Growth Management Act (the “GMA”) includes schools in the category of public facilities and services. School districts have adopted capital facilities plans to satisfy the requirements of the GMA and to identify additional school facilities necessary to meet the educational needs of the growing student populations anticipated in their districts. The Lakewood School District (the “District”) has prepared this Capital Facilities Plan (the “CFP”) to provide Snohomish County (the “County”) and the cities of Arlington and Marysville with a description of facilities needed to accommodate projected student enrollment and a schedule and financing program for capital improvements over the next six years (2024-2029). In accordance with the Growth Management Act, adopted County Policy, the Snohomish County Ordinance Nos. 97-095 and 99-107, the City of Arlington Ordinance No. 1263, and the City of Marysville Ordinance Nos. 2306 and 2213, this CFP contains the following required elements:  Future enrollment forecasts for each grade span (elementary, middle, and high school).  An inventory of existing capital facilities owned by the District, showing the locations and capacities of the facilities.  A forecast of the future needs for capital facilities and school sites.  The proposed capacities of expanded or new capital facilities.  A six-year plan for financing capital facilities within projected funding capacities, which clearly identifies sources of public money for such purposes. The financing plan separates projects and portions of projects which add capacity from those which do not, since the latter are generally not appropriate for impact fee funding.  As relevant, a calculation of impact fees to be assessed and supporting data substantiating said fees. In developing this CFP, the District followed the following guidelines set forth in the Snohomish County General Policy Plan:  Districts should use information from recognized sources, such as the U.S. Census or the Puget Sound Regional Council. School districts may generate their own data if it is derived through statistically reliable methodologies. Information must not be inconsistent with Office of Financial Management (“OFM”) population forecasts. Student generation rates must be independently calculated by each school district.  The CFP must comply with the GMA.  The methodology used to calculate impact fees must comply with the GMA. In the event that impact fees are not available due to action by the state, -2- county or cities within the District, the District in a future CFP update must identify alternative funding sources to replace the intended impact fee funding.  The methodology used to calculate impact fees also complies with the criteria and the formulas established by the County. Snohomish County’s Countywide Planning Policies direct jurisdictions in Snohomish County to “ensure the availability of sufficient land and services for future K-20 school needs” and “work with school districts to plan for the siting and improvement of school facilities.” Policy ED-11 and Policy PS-21. The District appreciates any opportunity for cooperative planning efforts with its jurisdictions. B. Overview of the Lakewood School District The Lakewood School District is located along Interstate 5, north of Marysville, Washington, primarily serving unincorporated Snohomish County and a part of the City of Arlington and the City of Marysville. The District is bordered on the south by the Marysville School District, on the west and north by the Stanwood School District, and on the east by the Arlington School District. The District serves a population of 2,614 headcount students, with an FTE enrollment of 2,534 (October 1, 2023, reported OSPI enrollment). The District has three elementary schools, one middle school, and one high school. -3- FIGURE 1 MAP OF FACILITIES -4- SECTION 2 DISTRICT EDUCATIONAL PROGRAM STANDARDS School facility and student capacity needs are dictated by the types and amounts of space required to accommodate the District’s adopted educational program. The educational program standards which typically drive facility space needs include grade configuration, optimum facility size, class size, educational program offerings, classroom utilization and scheduling requirements, and use of relocatable classroom facilities (portables), as well as specific and unique physical structure needs required to meet the needs of students with special needs. In addition to factors which affect the amount of space required, government mandates and community expectations may affect how classroom space is used. Traditional educational programs offered by school districts are often supplemented by nontraditional, or special programs such as special education, expanded bilingual education, remediation, migrant education, alcohol and drug education, AIDS education, preschool and daycare programs, computer labs, music programs, and others. These special or nontraditional educational programs can have a significant impact on the available student capacity of school facilities, and upon planning for future needs. The educational program standards contained in this CFP reflect the District’s implementation of requirements for full-day kindergarten and reduced K-3 class size. Special programs offered by the District at specific school sites include, but are not limited to: Lakewood Elementary School (Preschool through 5th Grades)  Multilingual Education Program  Title 1/Learning Assistance Program  K – 5th Grade Counseling Services  Speech and Language Therapy Services  Early Childhood Education and Assistance Program (ECEAP)  Developmental Preschool Program - Ages 3 to 5 (District Program)  K – 5th Grade Special Education Resource Room Program  K – 5th Grade Highly Capable Program  Occupational Therapy Services  Transitional Kindergarten Program English Crossing Elementary School (Kindergarten through 5th Grades)  K – 5th Grade Special Education Resource Room Program  Multilingual Education Program  K – 5th Grade Counseling Services  Speech and Language Therapy Services  Occupational Therapy Services  Special Education Achieve Program (District Program) -5-  K – 5th Grade Highly Capable Program  Title 1/Learning Assistance Program Cougar Creek Elementary School (Kindergarten through 5th Grades)  Multilingual Education Program  Title 1/Learning Assistance Program  Speech and Language Therapy Services  Occupational Therapy Services  K – 5th Grade Special Education Resource Room Program  K – 5th Grade Special Education Comprehensive Skills Program (District Program)  K – 5th Grade Counseling Services  K – 5th Grade Highly Capable Program Lakewood Middle School (6th through 8th Grades)  Speech and Language Therapy Service  6th – 8th Grade Special Education Program  6th – 8th Grade Special Education Comprehensive Skills Program (District Program)  Multilingual Education Program  Occupational Therapy Services  6th – 8th Grade Achieve Program (District Program)  6th – 8th Grade Counseling Services  6th – 8th Grade Highly Capable Program  Career and Technical Education Lakewood High School  9th – 12th Grade Special Education Program  9th – 12th Grade Special Education Comprehensive Skills Program (District Program)  Multilingual Education Program  Occupational Therapy Services  Speech and Language Therapy Services  9th – 12th Grade Counseling Program  Adult Special Education Independent Living Program (District Program)  9th – 12th Grade Highly Capable Program  Career and Technical Education Variations in student capacity between schools may result from the special or nontraditional programs offered at specific schools. Some students, for example, leave their regular classroom for a short period of time to receive instruction in these special programs. New schools are designed to accommodate many of these programs. However, existing schools often require space modifications to accommodate special programs, and in some circumstances, these modifications may affect the overall classroom capacities of the buildings. -6- District educational program standards may change in the future as a result of changes in the program year, special programs, class sizes, grade span configurations, use of new technology, and other physical aspects of the school facilities. The school capacity inventory will be reviewed periodically and adjusted for any changes to the educational program standards. These changes will also be reflected in future updates of this Capital Facilities Plan. The District educational program standards which directly affect school capacity are outlined below for the elementary, middle, and high school grade levels. Educational Program Standards for Elementary Schools • Class size for grades K – 3rd will not exceed 19 students. • Class size for grades 4th and 5th will not exceed 24 students. • All students will be provided library/media services in a school library. • Special Education for students may be provided in, inclusion, self-contained or specialized classrooms. • All students will be provided music instruction in a separate classroom (except LES due to capacity). • Each classroom will have access to computers and related educational technology. • Optimum design capacity for new elementary schools is 475 students. However, actual capacity of individual schools may vary depending on the educational programs offered. • All students will be provided physical education instruction in a gym/multipurpose room. Educational Program Standards for Middle and High Schools • Class size for middle school grades will not exceed 27 students. • Class size for high school grades will not exceed 29 students. • As a result of scheduling conflicts for student programs, the need for specialized rooms for certain programs, and the need for teachers to have a work space during planning periods, it is not possible to achieve 100% utilization of all regular teaching stations throughout the day. In updating this Capital Facility Plan, a building review of classroom use was conducted in order to reflect the actual classroom utilization in the high school and middle school. Therefore, classroom capacity should be adjusted using a utilization factor of 95% at the middle school and 85% at the high school to reflect the use of classrooms for teacher planning. Special Education for students will be provided in self-contained or specialized classrooms. Inclusion model for qualified students on IEP’s. • Each classroom is equipped with access to computers and related educational-technology. • Identified students will also be provided other nontraditional educational opportunities in classrooms designated as follows: Counseling Offices Resource Rooms (i.e. computer labs, study rooms) Special Education Classrooms Program Specific Classrooms (i.e. music, drama, art, physical education, Industrial Arts and Agricultural Sciences, STEM). -7- • Optimum design capacity for new middle schools is 600 students. However, actual capacity of individual schools may vary depending on the educational programs offered. • Optimum design capacity for new high schools is 800 students. However, actual capacity of individual schools may vary depending on the educational programs offered. Minimum Educational Service Standards The District will evaluate student housing levels based on the District as a whole system and not on a school by school or site by site basis. This may result in portable classrooms being used as interim housing, attendance boundary changes or other program changes to balance student housing across the system as a whole. A boundary change or a significant programmatic change would be made by the Board of Directors following appropriate public review and comment. The District may also request that development be deferred until planned facilities can be completed to meet the needs of the incoming population; however, the District has no control over the ultimate land use decisions made by the permitting jurisdictions. The District’s minimum level of service (“MLOS”) is as follows: on average, K-5 classrooms have no more than 26 students per classroom, 6-8 classrooms have no more than 28 students per classroom, and 9-12 classrooms have no more than 30 students per classroom. The District sets minimum educational service standards based on several criteria. Exceeding these minimum standards will trigger significant changes in program delivery. Minimum standards have not been met if, on average using current FTE figures: K-4 classrooms have more than 26 students per classroom, 5-8 classrooms have more than 28 students per classroom, or 9-12 classrooms more than 30 students per classroom. The term “classroom” does not include special education classrooms or special program classrooms (i.e. computer labs, art rooms, chorus and band rooms, spaces used for physical education and other special program areas). Furthermore, the term “classroom” does not apply to special programs or activities that may occur in a regular classroom. The MLOS is not the District’s desired or accepted operating standard. For 2021-22 and 2022-23, the District’s compliance with the MLOS was as follows (with MLOS set as applicable for those school years): 2021-22 School Year LOS Standard MINIMUM LOS# Elementary REPORTED LOS Elementary MINIMUM LOS Middle REPORTED LOS Middle MINIMUM LOS High REPORTED LOS High 26 20.09 28 21.63 30 24.85 2022-23 School Year LOS Standard MINIMUM LOS# Elementary REPORTED LOS Elementary MINIMUM LOS Middle REPORTED LOS Middle MINIMUM LOS High REPORTED LOS High 26 19.92 28 22.19 30 24.94 * The District determines the reported LOS by adding the number of students in regular classrooms at each grade level and dividing that number by the number of teaching stations (excludes portables). -8- SECTION 3 CAPITAL FACILITIES INVENTORY The facilities inventory serves to establish a baseline for determining the facilities necessary to accommodate future demand (student enrollment) at acceptable levels of service. This section provides an inventory of capital facilities owned and operated by the District including schools, relocatable classrooms, undeveloped land, and support facilities. Facility capacity is based on the space required to accommodate the District’s adopted educational program standards. See Section 2. Attached as Figure 1 (page 3) is a map showing locations of District facilities. A. Schools The District maintains three elementary schools, one middle school, and one high school. Lakewood Elementary School accommodates grades P-5, Cougar Creek Elementary School accommodates grades K-5, and English Crossing Elementary School accommodates grades K-5. Lakewood Middle School serves grades 6-8, and Lakewood High School serves grades 9-12. School capacity was determined based on the number of teaching stations within each building and the space requirements of the District’s adopted educational program. It is this capacity calculation that is used to establish the District’s baseline capacity, and to determine future capacity needs based on projected student enrollment. The school capacity inventory is summarized in Table 1. Relocatable classrooms are not viewed by the District as a solution for housing students on a permanent basis. Therefore, these facilities are not included in Table 1. Table 1 School Capacity Inventory Elementary School Site Size (Acres) Building Area (Square Feet) Teaching Stations Permanent Capacity Year Built or Remodeled English Crossing * 41,430 20 403 1994 Cougar Creek 10** 44,217 21 424 2003 Lakewood * 45,400 16 323 1958, 1997 TOTAL * 131,047 57 1,150 Middle School Site Size (Acres) Building Area (Square Feet) Teaching Stations Permanent Capacity Year Built or Remodeled Lakewood Middle * 79,945 27 670 1971, 1994, 2002, 2024 High School Site Size (Acres) Building Area (Square Feet) Teaching Stations Permanent Capacity Year Built or Remodeled Lakewood High * 169,000 34 850 2017 *Note: All facilities are located on one 89-acre campus located at Tax Parcel No. 31053000100300. **The Cougar Creek site is approximately 22 acres located at 16216 11th Ave NE, Arlington, WA 98223. Note that the presence of critical areas on the site does not allow full utilization at this site. -9- B. Relocatable Classrooms Relocatable classrooms are used on an interim basis to house students until funding can be secured to construct permanent classrooms. The District currently uses 19 relocatable classrooms at various school sites throughout the District to provide additional interim capacity. A typical relocatable classroom can provide capacity for a full-size class of students. Current use of relocatable classrooms throughout the District is summarized in Table 2. Table 2 includes only those relocatable classrooms used for regular capacity purposes. The average size of a single relocatable classroom is approximately 896 square feet. See page 22 for total square footage by grade level. The District’s relocatable classrooms have adequate useful remaining life and are evaluated regularly. Table 2 Relocatable Classroom (Portable) Inventory Elementary School Relocatable Classrooms Interim Capacity English Crossing 2 40 Cougar Creek 4 80 Lakewood 10 200 SUBTOTAL 16 320 Middle School Relocatable Classrooms Interim Capacity Lakewood Middle 3 78 SUBTOTAL 3 78 High School Relocatable Classrooms Interim Capacity Lakewood High 0 0 SUBTOTAL 0 0 TOTAL 19 398 -10- C. Support Facilities In addition to schools, the District owns and operates additional facilities which provide operational support functions to the schools. An inventory of these facilities is provided in Table 3. Table 3 Support Facility Inventory Facility Building Area (Square Feet) Administration 1,384 Business and Operations 1,152 Storage 2,456 Bus Garage/Maintenance Shop 7,416 Stadium 14,304 The District is also a party to a cooperative agreement for use of the Marysville School District transportation facility (which is owned by the Marysville School District). D. Land Inventory The District does not own any sites which are developed for uses other than schools and/or which are leased to other parties. E. Leased Facilities The District leases a 900 square foot portable located in the district office compound that hosts the Teaching and Learning Department and Technology Leadership. -11- SECTION 4 STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS The District’s October 1, 2023, reported enrollment was 2,614 HC students (2,533.64 FTE). Enrollment projections are most accurate for the initial years of the forecast period. Moving further into the future, more assumptions about economic conditions and demographic trends in the area affect the projection. Monitoring birth rates in Snohomish County and population growth for the area are essential yearly activities in the ongoing management of the capital facilities plan. In the event that enrollment growth slows, plans for new facilities can be delayed. It is much more difficult, however, to initiate new projects or speed projects up in the event enrollment growth exceeds the projection. A. Six Year Enrollment Projections Two enrollment forecasts were conducted for the District: an estimate by the Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI) based upon the cohort survival method; and a modified cohort enrollment forecast prepared by a demographer. The District also estimated enrollment based upon adopted Snohomish County population forecasts (“ratio method”). Based on the cohort survival methodology, a total of 2,773 students are expected to be enrolled in the District by 2029, a slight increase from the October 2023 enrollment levels. Notably, the cohort survival method is not designed to anticipate fluctuations in development patterns. This deficiency is exacerbated by enrollment anomalies that occurred as a result of the COVID pandemic, particularly in the 2020-21 school year. Historically the OFM numbers and OSPI cohort percentages are lower than the district projections. See Appendix A-1. Snohomish County provides OFM population-based enrollment projections for the District using OFM population forecasts as adopted by the County. The County provided the District with the estimated total population in the District by year. In 2023, the District’s student enrollment constituted approximately 14.60% of the total population in the District. Assuming that between 2024 and 2029, the District’s enrollment will continue to constitute 14.60% of the District’s total population and using OFM/County data, OFM/County methodology projects a total enrollment of 2,850 students in 2029, or an approximately 9.03% increase. The District obtained in May 2023 an updated enrollment forecast from a professional demographer, FLO Analytics. They provided a low, middle and high estimate of students using full-time equivalent (FTE) counts. Based on this analysis, and using the middle numbers, a total enrollment of 2,743 FTE students, or 209 additional students, are expected by the 2029-30 school year. This projection is an increase of approximately 8.25% over 2023 enrollment. Growth is projected at the elementary and middle school levels, with some plateau at the high school level during the six-year planning period, but picking up in the immediate years following. The FLO Analytics forecast utilizes historic enrollment patterns, demographic and land use analysis based upon information from Snohomish County and the cities of Arlington and Marysville, census data, OFM forecasts, and Washington State Department of Health birth data. It also considers the impacts of the pandemic on enrollment. The detailed FLO Analytics forecast report is on file with the District and a grade level analysis is included in Appendix A-2. -12- The comparison of OSPI cohort, District projections, and OFM/County projected enrollments is contained in Table 4. Table 4 Projected Student Enrollment (FTE) 2024-2029 Projection Oct. 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2029 2028 2029 Change 2024-29 Percent Change 2024-29 OFM/County 2,614 2,653 2,692 2,731 2,770 2,809 2,850 236 9.03% OSPI Cohort** 2,614 2,623 2,666 2,678 2,732 2,753 2,773 159 6.08% District*** 2,534 2,567 2,605 2,634 2,697 2,727 2,743 209 8.25% * Actual reported enrollment, October 2023 (headcount for OFM/OSPI; FTE for District) **Based upon the cohort survival methodology; complete projections located at Appendix A.. ***FLO Analytics using FTE; grade level projections located in Appendix A. The District is aware of notable pending residential development within the District. Specifically, nearly 1,100 multi-family units are planned for or currently in construction within the District boundaries as well as nearly 500 single family units. Given the District-specific detailed analysis contained in the FLO Analytics report, the District is relying on the projections in that report for purposes of planning for the District’s needs during the six years of this plan period. The District plans to watch enrollment growth closely as new development continues. Future updates to the Plan will continue to revisit enrollment projections and methodologies. B. 2044 Enrollment Projections Student enrollment projections beyond 2029 are highly speculative. Using OFM/County data as a base, the District projects a 2044 student HC population of 3,517. This is based on the OFM/County data using total population as related to District enrollment. Projected enrollment by grade span for the year 2044 is provided in Table 5. Again, these estimates are highly speculative and are used only for general planning purposes. -13- Table 5 Projected Student Enrollment 2044 Grade Span HC Enrollment – October 2023 Projected Enrollment 2044* Elementary (K-5) 1,182 1,590 Middle School (6-8) 616 829 High School (9-12) 816 1,098 TOTAL (K-12) 2,614 3,517 *Assumes average percentage per grade span remains constant between 2023 and 2044. Note: Snohomish County Planning and Development Service provided the underlying data for the 2044 projections. -14- SECTION 5 CAPITAL FACILITIES NEEDS The projected available student capacity was determined by subtracting projected FTE student enrollment from permanent school capacity (i.e. excluding portables) for each of the six years in the forecast period (2024-2029). Capacity needs are expressed in terms of “unhoused students.” Projected future capacity needs are depicted on Table 6-A and are derived by applying the projected enrollment to the capacity existing in the 2023-24 school year. The method used to define future capacity needs assumes no new construction. For this reason, planned construction projects are not included at this point. This factor, as applicable, is added later (see Table 7). This table shows actual space needs and the portion of those needs that are “growth related” for the years 2024-2029. Note that this chart can be misleading as it reads out growth-related capacity needs related to recent growth within the District. Table 6-A* Additional Capacity Needs*** 2023-2029 Grade Span 2023 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 Pct. Growth Related Elementary (K-5) Total Growth Related 32 32 18 -- 20 -- 76 44 92 60 103 71 115 83 72% Middle School (6-8) Total Growth Related 0 -- 0 -- 0 -- 0 -- 0 -- 0 -- 8 8 100% High School Total Growth Related 0 -- 0 -- 0 -- 0 -- 0 -- 0 -- 0 -- --% *Please refer to Table 7 for capacity and projected enrollment information. **Actual October 2023 Enrollment ***Additional “Growth Related Capacity Needs” equal the “Total” for each year less “deficiencies” existing as of 2023. Existing deficiencies as of 2023 include capacity needs related to recent growth from new development through that date. -15- By the end of the six-year forecast period (2029), additional permanent classroom capacity will be needed as follows: Table 6-B Unhoused Students Grade Span Unhoused Students /Growth Related in Parentheses) Elementary (K-5) 115/(83) Middle School (6-8) 8/(8) High School (9-12) -(-) TOTAL UNHOUSED (K-12) 123/(91) Again, any planned construction projects are not included in the analysis in Table 6-B. In addition, it is not the District’s policy to include relocatable classrooms when determining future capital facility needs; therefore interim capacity provided by relocatable classrooms is not included in Table 6-B. However, Table 6-C incorporates the District’s current relocatable capacity (see Table 2) for purposes of identifying available capacity. Table 6-C Unhoused Students – Mitigated with Relocatables Grade Span 2029 Unhoused Students /Growth Related in (Parentheses) Relocatable Capacity Elementary (K-5) 115/(83) 320 Middle School (6-8) 8/(8) 78 High School (9-12) -/(-) 0 Total (K-12) 123(91) 398 Importantly, Table 6-C does not include relocatable adjustments that may be made to meet capacity needs. For example, the relocatable classrooms currently designated to serve elementary school needs could be used to serve high school capacity needs. Therefore, assuming no permanent capacity improvements are made, Table 6-C indicates that the District will have adequate interim capacity with the use of relocatable classrooms to house students during this planning period. Projected permanent capacity needs are depicted in Table 7. They are derived by applying the District’s projected number of students to the projected capacity. Planned improvements by the District through 2029 are included in Table 7 and more fully described in Table 8. -16- Table 7 Projected Student Capacity 2024-2029 Elementary School Surplus/Deficiency Oct 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Existing Capacity 1,150 1,150 1,150 1,150 1,150 1,150 1,150 Added Permanent Capacity Total Permanent Capacity 1,150 1,150 1,150 1,150 1,150 1,150 1,150 Enrollment` 1,182 1,168 1,170 1,226 1,242 1,253 1,265 Surplus (Deficiency)** (32) (18) (20) (76) (92) (103) (115) * Reported October 2023 FTE enrollment ** Does not include portable capacity Middle School Surplus/Deficiency Oct 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Existing Capacity 670 670 670 670 670 670 670 Added Permanent Capacity Total Permanent Capacity 670 670 670 670 670 670 670 Enrollment 616 650 652 633 632 625 678 Surplus (Deficiency)** 54 20 18 37 38 45 (8) * Reported October 2023 FTE enrollment **Does not include portable capacity. High School Surplus/Deficiency Oct 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Existing Capacity 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 Added Permanent Capacity Total Permanent Capacity 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 Enrollment 816 749 784 776 823 849 800 Surplus (Deficiency)** 34 101 66 74 27 1 50 * Reported October 2023 FTE enrollment **Does not include portable capacity See Appendix A for complete breakdown of enrollment projections. See Table 6-A for a comparison of additional capacity needs due to growth versus existing deficiencies. Table 7 does not include existing, relocated, or added portable facilities. -17- SECTION 6 CAPITAL FACILITIES FINANCING PLAN A. Planned Improvements In March 2000, the voters passed a $14,258,664 bond issue for school construction and site acquisition. A new elementary school and a middle school addition were funded by that bond measure. In April 2014, the District’s voters approved a $66,800,000 bond measure to fund improvements, including a capacity addition at Lakewood High School, which opened in the fall of 2017. In the Spring of 2020, the District added a STEM lab and two classrooms at Lakewood Middle School. Currently, the District is assessing future capacity needs and, at the present time, anticipates adding portable capacity to address short term needs with immediate plans to add portables in the summer of 2024 in the space between Lakewood Middle School and Lakewood Elementary School in order to provide K-5 interim capacity at LES. The District is not planning for permanent capacity improvements as a part of this CFP update. However, the District is considering, based on recommendations of the 2023 Citizens’ Facility Advisory Committee, a new middle school with the existing Lakewood Middle School thereafter converted to Lakewood Elementary School to provide additional K-5 capacity. Both facilities would provide capacity to serve growth. The District is in early planning as to this recommendation. Future updates to this CFP, including a potential interim update, will identify updated plans and funding sources. Based upon current needs, the District anticipates that it may need to consider the following acquisitions and/or improvements within the six years of this Plan. Projects Adding Permanent/Temporary Capacity:  Acquisition and siting of portable facilities to accommodate growth needs. Non-Capacity Adding Projects:  None planned Other:  Land acquisition for future sites. In the event that planned construction projects do not fully address space needs for student growth and a reduction in interim student housing, the Board could consider various courses of action, including, but not limited to:  Alternative scheduling options;  Changes in the instructional model;  Grade configuration changes;  Increased class sizes; or  Modified school calendar. Funding for planned improvements is typically secured from a number of sources including voter approved bonds, State School Construction Assistance funds, and impact fees. Where applicable, the potential funding sources are discussed below. -18- B. Financing for Planned Improvements 1. General Obligation Bonds Bonds are typically used to fund construction of new schools and other capital improvement projects. A 60% voter approval is required to approve the issuance of bonds. Bonds are then retired through collection of property taxes. In March 2000, District voters approved a $14,258,664 bond issue for school construction and site acquisition, which included funding of Cougar Creek Elementary School. In April 2014, the District’s voters approved a $66,800,000 bond measure to fund improvements, including a capacity addition, at Lakewood High School. The District does not have current plans for a future bond or capital levy proposal. Future updates to the CFP will include any proposed or in process planning. 2. State School Construction Assistance State School Construction Assistance funds come from the Common School Construction Fund and is administered by the Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI). The State deposits revenue from the sale of renewable resources from State school lands set aside by the Enabling Act of 1889 into the Common School Account. If these sources are insufficient to meet needs, the Legislature can appropriate General Obligation Bond funds or OSPI can prioritize projects for funding. School districts may qualify for State School Construction Assistance Program (SCAP) funds for specific capital projects based on a prioritization system. The District is eligible for State School Construction Assistance Program (SCAP) funds for certain projects at the 59.01% funding percentage level. The current Construction Cost Allowance, the maximum cost/square foot recognized for SCAP funding, is set in the legislature in the biennial budget and currently is $375.00/eligible square foot. The District does not anticipate being eligible for SCAP funds for the projects planned in this CFP. 3. Impact Fees Impact fees are a means of supplementing traditional funding sources for construction of public facilities needed to accommodate new development. School impact fees are generally collected by the permitting agency at the time plats are approved or building permits are issued. 4. Six Year Financing Plan The Six-Year Financing Plan shown in Table 8 demonstrates how the District intends to fund new construction and improvements to school facilities for the years 2024-2029. Where applicable, potential financing components include a bond or capital levy, impact fees, and State School Construction Assistance Program funds. Projects and portions of projects which remedy existing deficiencies are not appropriate for impact fee funding. Thus, impact fees will not be used to finance projects or portions of projects which do not add capacity or which remedy existing deficiencies. -19- Table 8 Capital Facilities Plan Improvements Adding Permanent Capacity (Costs in Millions) Project 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Cost Bonds/ Levy/ Other Local State Funds Impact Fees Elementary School Middle School High School Portables (all grade levels) $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.75 $2.750 X X Site Acquisition $0.775 $0.775 X X Improvements Not Adding Capacity (Costs in Millions) Project 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Cost Bonds/ Levy/ Other Local State Funds Impact Fees Elementary Middle School High School -20- SECTION 7 SCHOOL IMPACT FEES The GMA authorizes jurisdictions to collect impact fees to supplement funding of additional public facilities needed to accommodate new development. Impact fees cannot be used for the operation, maintenance, repair, alteration, or replacement of existing capital facilities used to meet existing service demands. A. School Impact Fees in Snohomish County The Snohomish County General Policy Plan (“GPP”) which implements the GMA sets certain conditions for school districts wishing to assess impact fees:  The District must provide support data including: an explanation of the calculation methodology, a description of key variables and their computation, and definitions and sources of data for all inputs into the fee calculation.  Such data must be accurate, reliable and statistically valid.  Data must accurately reflect projected costs in the Six-Year Financing Plan.  Data in the proposed impact fee schedule must reflect expected student generation rates from at least the following residential dwelling unit types: single family; multi-family/studio or 1-bedroom; and multi-family/2- bedroom or more. Snohomish County established a school impact fee program in November 1997, and amended the program in December 1999. This program requires school districts to prepare and adopt Capital Facilities Plans meeting the specifications of the GMA. Impact fees calculated in accordance with the formula, which are based on projected school facility costs necessitated by new growth and are contained in the District’s CFP, become effective following County Council adoption of the District’s CFP. B. Methodology and Variables Used to Calculate School Impact Fees Impact fees are calculated utilizing the formula in the Snohomish County Impact Fee Ordinance. The resulting figures are based on the District’s cost per dwelling unit to, as applicable, purchase land for school sites, make site improvements, construct schools, and purchase/install relocatable facilities that add interim capacity needed to serve new development.  The Site Acquisition Cost, School Construction Cost, and Temporary/Portable Facility Cost factors are based on planned or actual costs of growth-related school capacity (required on-site/off-site improvements). Costs vary with each site and each facility. See Table 8, Finance Plan. The “Permanent Facility Square Footage” is used in combination -21- with the “Temporary Facility Square Footage” to apportion the impact fee amounts between permanent and temporary capacity figures. A student factor (or student generation rate) is used to identify the average cost per dwelling unit by measuring the average number of students generated by each housing type. A description of the student factor methodology is contained in Appendix B. The District did not update its student generation rates for this CFP given that it is not requesting school impact fees.  Where applicable, credits are applied in the formula to account for State School Construction Assistance funds to be reimbursed to the District and projected future property taxes to be paid by the dwelling unit. See page 18. The tax credit uses the 20-year general obligation bond rate from the Bond Buyer index, the District’s current levy rate for bonds, and average assessed value of all residential dwelling units in the District (provided by Snohomish County) by dwelling unit type to determine the corresponding tax credit. The costs of projects that do not add capacity are not included in the impact fee calculations. Furthermore, because the impact fee formula calculates a “cost per dwelling unit”, an identical fee is generated regardless of whether the total new capacity project costs are used in the calculation or whether the District only uses the percentage of the total new capacity project costs allocated to the Districts growth-related needs, as demonstrated in Table 6-A. When applicable, the District uses the full project costs in the fee formula when calculating school impact fees. Furthermore, impact fees will not be used to address existing deficiencies. See Table 8 for a complete identification of funding sources. The District is not requesting school impact fees as a part of this Capital Facilities Plan update. -22- FACTORS FOR ESTIMATED IMPACT FEE CALCULATIONS Student Generation Factors – Single Family Average Site Cost/Acre Elementary .126 N/A Middle .079 High .063 Total .268 Temporary Facility Capacity Student Generation Factors – Multi Family (1 Bdrm) Capacity 20/26 Elementary .026 Cost $250,000 Middle .000 High .000 SCAP Credit (OSPI) Total .026 Current Eligible Cost Percentage 59.01% Current Construction Cost Allocation 375.00 Student Generation Factors – Multi Family (2+ Bdrm) Elementary .101 Middle .038 High .045 District Average Assessed Value (Snohomish Co.) Total .184 Single Family Residence $615,195 Projected Student Capacity per Facility District Average Assessed Value (Snohomish Co.) N/A Multi Family (1 Bedroom) $175,173 Multi Family (2+ Bedroom) $242,411 Required Site Acreage per Facility SPI Square Footage per Student (WAC 392-343-035) Facility Construction/Cost Average Elementary 90 Middle 108 N/A High 130 Debt Service Tax Rate for Bonds (Snohomish Co.) Current/$1,000 $1.12394 Permanent Facility Square Footage (LSD Inventory) General Obligation Bond Interest Rate (Bond Buyer) Elementary 131,047 Bond Buyer Index (avg February 2024) 3.48% Middle 79,945 High 169,000 Developer Provided Sites/Facilities Total 96.0% 379,992 Value 0 Dwelling Units 0 Temporary Facility Square Footage (LSD Inventory) Elementary 14,382 Middle 2,688 High 0 Total 4.0% 17,070 Total Facility Square Footage Elementary 145,429 Middle 82,633 High 169,000 Total 100.00% 397,062 -23- C. Proposed Lakewood School District Impact Fee Schedule The District does not have permanent capacity projects planned as a part of the 2024 CFP. See discussion in Section 6 above. As such, the District is not requesting the collection of school impact fees as a part of this Capital Facilities Plan. The District expects that future project planning and updates to the Capital Facilities Plan will result in a renewed request for impact fees as a part of a future CFP. Table 9 School Impact Fees Snohomish County, City of Arlington, City of Marysville* Housing Type Impact Fee Per Dwelling Unit Single Family $0 Townhome/Duplex $0 Multi-Family (2+ Bedroom) $0 Multi-Family (1 Bedroom/less) $0 *Table 9 reflects a 50% adjustment to the calculated fee as required by local ordinances. APPENDIX A POPULATION AND ENROLLMENT DATA A-1 Table A-1 ACTUAL STUDENT ENROLLMENT 2018-2023 PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT 2024-2029 Based on OSPI Cohort Survival* Headcount Enrollment A-2 Table A-2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT BY GRADE SPAN (DISTRICT - FLO Analytics)** APPENDIX B STUDENT GENERATION FACTOR REVIEW B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 APPENDIX C SCHOOL IMPACT FEE CALCULATIONS This section does not updated for the 2024-2029 Capital Facilities Plan since the District is not requesting a school impact fee. Future updates to this CFP may include an impact fee. MEMORANDUM FLO Analytics | 1-888-847-0299 | www.flo-analytics.com R:\F2690.01 Marysville School District\001_2024.03.01 Forecast Memo\MSD 2024-25 to 2033-34 Enrollment Forecasts Memo.docx © 2024 FLO Analytics To: Dr. Lisa Gonzales Executive Director – Finance & Operations Marysville School District 4220 80th Street NE Marysville, WA 98270 Date: Project No.: March 1, 2024 F2690.01.001 From: Alex Brasch Senior Population Geographer Kent Martin Senior Planner Re: 2024–25 to 2033–34 Enrollment Forecasts—Marysville School District At the request of Marysville School District (MSD/District), FLO Analytics (FLO) prepared enrollment forecasts for grades kindergarten (K) through 12 for the 2024–25 to 2033–34 school years. The study was completed through three main tasks: (1) demographic and residential development analysis, (2) enrollment assessment, and (3) enrollment forecasting. FLO developed three scenarios (low, middle, and high) of district-wide enrollment forecasts, representing the total number of students living within and outside the district boundary and attending district schools and programs. These forecasts are provided as district-wide totals and by individual grade. FLO also prepared more granular forecasts of the number of students enrolled at each of the District’s elementary, middle, and high schools and special programs. Because MSD prefers that the low scenario forecasts be used for planning purposes, including individual school forecasts, any figures that focus on a single scenario use the low scenario forecasts. Demographic and Residential Development Analysis Understanding the population and housing trends within the geographic area of the district and surrounding region (Figure 1) is an integral part of the enrollment forecasting process. FLO mapped the distribution of student residences (Figure 2); reviewed historical, current, and projected demographic characteristics of the region; and analyzed current land use policies and anticipated residential development. Population Trends Figure 3 illustrates the 2000 to 2020 population change for Snohomish County, MSD, the City of Marysville, and unincorporated areas that comprise the district. Snohomish County grew steadily in the 2000s and 2010s, adding 107,311 (17.7 percent) and 114,622 (16.1 percent) residents, respectively. Over the 20-year period, the county grew by 36.6 percent. In comparison, the total population of MSD grew at a higher rate than the county in the 2000s and at a lower rate in the 2010s, adding 11,728 (20.4 percent) and 6,826 (9.9 percent) residents, respectively. That amounts to 32.3 percent growth over the 20-year period, adding a total of 18,554 residents. In 2000, most of Marysville School District Project No. F2690.01.001 March 1, 2024 Page 2 R:\F2690.01 Marysville School District\001_2024.03.01 Forecast Memo\MSD 2024-25 to 2033-34 Enrollment Forecasts Memo.docx © 2024 FLO Analytics MSD’s population resided in unincorporated Snohomish County (56.5 percent). Between 2000 and 2010, the City of Marysville annexed large portions of unincorporated Snohomish County, contributing to a more than doubling of the city population, increasing from 25,315 to 60,020 (137.1 percent). As a result, in 2010 most of MSD’s population resided in Marysville (79.6 percent). The population of the unincorporated portion of the district decreased by 18,321 (56.5 percent) between 2000 and 2010, mostly due to the Marysville annexations. Despite limited annexation between 2010 and 2020, the city’s population continued to increase, adding 10,694 residents (17.8 percent) over the 10-year period. The unincorporated portion of the district grew by 718 residents (5.1 percent) between 2010 and 2020. Although the majority of Marysville is within the district boundary, 13.5 percent of the city’s population lives outside of the MSD, in the Arlington, Lakewood, or Lake Stevens school district. Between 2010 and 2020, the city’s annual average growth rate (AAGR) of 1.7 percent outpaced Snohomish County’s AAGR of 1.5%. In comparison, the portion of Marysville within MSD had a lower AAGR of 1.1 percent, while the unincorporated portion of the district had an even lower AAGR of 0.5 percent. One factor hindering enrollment growth has been slow growth or decline in the number of children residing in the district. Figure 4 depicts how the proportion of the population under the age of 18 changed in relation to the population over the age of 18. The AAGR of the population aged 18 and older (2.4 percent) outpaced the rate of the population under the age of 18 (0.6 percent) between 2000 and 2010. The AAGR’s of both age groups decreased between 2010 and 2020, to 1.4 percent for the population age 18 and older and -0.3 percent for the population under the age of 18. The proportion of the population under the age of 18 decreased from 30 percent in 2000 to 26 percent in 2010 and to 23 percent in 2020. The Washington Office of Financial Management published population projections (low, medium, and high series) for Snohomish County in December 2022. The medium series projection results in Figure 5 show that the county is expected to continue growing between 2020 and 2040, adding just over 210,000 residents, which is about 11,000 fewer than between 2000 and 2020. However, as the population base increases each decade, the AAGR decreases. AAGRs of 1.2 percent in the 2020s and 1.1 percent in the 2030s indicate an expectation that population growth will slow in comparison to the rates experienced from 2010 to 2020. Housing Types and Student Generation Rates Housing type is an important indicator of the expected average number of students generated per housing unit. For instance, on average, single-family (SF) housing units generate more students per unit than multifamily (MF) housing units. Factors that contribute to student generation rates (SGR), or yields, include the size of the housing units, the number of bedrooms, housing costs, neighborhood demographics, and family-friendly amenities such as playgrounds. Figure 6 includes the SGRs for SF detached, plex/townhome, and MF housing types, based on new residential construction between 2015 and 2022. The plex/townhome category includes the following structure types: duplex, triplex, fourplex, multifamily 2–4 units, townhomes, and single- family attached. Homes built in 2023 are excluded from the analysis, because they may not have been completed and occupied by October 2023. On average, each SF detached housing unit yields 0.446 K–12 students, while each plex/townhome and MF unit yields 0.233 and 0.164 students, respectively. The SGRs are also calculated by grade group (K–5, 6–8, 9–12), which reveals that new single-family housing units yield more elementary students than middle or high school students, because families often move into new housing with younger children. Marysville School District Project No. F2690.01.001 March 1, 2024 Page 3 R:\F2690.01 Marysville School District\001_2024.03.01 Forecast Memo\MSD 2024-25 to 2033-34 Enrollment Forecasts Memo.docx © 2024 FLO Analytics Planned Residential Construction FLO gathered residential development data from the City of Marysville and the Tulalip Tribe to assess housing trends within the district. Key residential development data are presented in Figures 7 and 8. Figure 7 depicts the locations of housing projects that are currently in active construction or in planning stages, and Figure 8 includes details of residential development data, such as development name, anticipated number of units, and current status. Based on available information in winter 2023–24, nearly 1,000 housing units are being tracked by Marysville and Tulalip planning departments. Considering the current pace of construction and information on permitting, we expect about two-thirds of the units to be built between 2024 and 2028 and one-third to be built between 2028 and 2033. Approximately 850 housing units are expected to be built in the City of Marysville in the 10-year period. About 31 percent will be SF detached units, 25 percent will be plexes/townhomes, and 44 percent will be MF units. Some projects, such as Wyndham Hills PRD2, are already under construction, while others, like Margaret Estates Apartments, are currently under review but are anticipated to be completed within the forecast horizon. The Tulalip Tribe expects one MF apartment building, containing 84 units, and one subdivision of 26 SF detached units to be built within the next five years. The highest number of new housing units (186 SF detached and 32 plexes/townhomes) are expected in the Sunnyside Elementary School (ES/K–5) attendance area. Other ES attendance areas that are anticipated to experience housing growth of over 100 units include Liberty ES, Marshall ES, Quil Ceda Tulalip ES, and Shoultes ES. Prospective housing units are evenly distributed between the three middle school (MS/6–8) attendance areas—31 percent in Cedarcrest MS, 36 percent in Marysville MS, and 33 percent in Totem MS. The Marysville Pilchuck High School (HS/9–12) attendance area includes 55 percent of prospective housing units, while the remaining 45 percent are in the Marysville Getchell HS attendance area. While it is important to consider the number of units and the pace of construction, it is equally imperative to monitor the number of students living in new housing and changes to SGRs. Enrollment Assessment To better understand recent enrollment trends, FLO analyzed historical enrollment (October 2016– 17 to 2023–24 headcount) based on the enrollment reports and student information system extracts (SIS) provided by the District. Students attending full-time Running Start are not included in any reported enrollment values. FLO evaluated historical grade progression ratios (GPRs), participation in special or nontraditional programs, and differences in enrollment by residence compared to individual school attendance (i.e., transfer rates). Enrollment Trends Figure 9 shows the district-wide enrollment by individual grade. District-wide enrollment decreased by 368 students between 2018–19 and 2019–20 and then decreased by 325 students in 2020– 21, largely due to the impacts of COVID-19. Enrollment recovered slightly in 2021–22 by 79 students, followed by a decrease in 2022–23 of 123 students and another substantial decrease of 413 students in 2023–24. Within the historical period of study, grades K–6, 10, and 12 experienced their largest cohorts before 2020–21. Half of the grades (K, 4, 5, 7, 9, and 12) experienced their smallest cohorts in 2023–24. Figure 10 tabulates enrollment by grade group and school. ES enrollment decreased by 245 students from 2018–19 to 2019–20, followed by another significant decrease of 330 students in Marysville School District Project No. F2690.01.001 March 1, 2024 Page 4 R:\F2690.01 Marysville School District\001_2024.03.01 Forecast Memo\MSD 2024-25 to 2033-34 Enrollment Forecasts Memo.docx © 2024 FLO Analytics 2020–21. ES enrollment regained 34 students in 2021–22 and continued to increase in 2022–23 by 38 students but decreased by 219 students in 2023–24. Overall, in the six-year period, ES enrollment decreased by 722 students. MS enrollment increased by 58 students between 2018–19 and 2019–20 followed a loss of 21 students in 2020–21. MS enrollment continued to decline in 2021–22, 2022–23, and 2023–24, losing 77, 184, and 5 students, respectively. Over the six-year period, MS enrollment decreased by 229 students. HS enrollment decreased by 181 students from 2018–19 to 2019–20. HS enrollment increased in each of the next three school years by 26, 122, and 23 students, respectively. Those three years of enrollment growth were followed by a considerable enrollment loss of 189 students in 2023–24. Residence-Attendance Matrices Based on FLO’s analysis of district-wide K–12 transfers (Figure 11), a total of 201 students who live outside the district boundary were enrolled in district schools in 2023–24, representing 2.1 percent of enrollment. Overall, 1,567 students residing within the district boundary transferred to a school or program different from their residence school, which is based on the attendance area in which they live. This amounts to a district-wide intra-district transfer rate of 17.1 percent. The largest percentage of transfers occurs within the 9‒12 grade group, with an intra-district transfer rate of 25.6 percent. As depicted in the residence-attendance matrices (Figures 12 through 14) by grade group, transfer rates also differ by school. For instance, Figure 12 reports transfer-out rates for ES attendance areas ranging from 9.9 percent (Marshall ES-Marysville Co-Op) to 21.0 percent (Cascade ES). From the perspective of individual school enrollment, ES transfer-in rates range from 5.6 percent (Sunnyside ES) to 39.0 percent (Marshall ES-Marysville Co-Op). Schools with higher transfer-in rates are typically due to a preference in programming, location, or relationship with neighboring schools. These transfer rates can help reveal patterns of student choice or quantify District policies. For instance, if a particular school with a high transfer-in rate began to exceed capacity, the District may reconsider transfer policies or programming to alleviate overcrowding. Figures 13 and 14 show the MS and HS transfer rates and out-of-district totals. MS transfer-out rates range from 10.9 percent (Cedarcrest MS) to 22.7 percent (Marysville MS) and transfer-in rates range from 6.7 percent (Marysville MS) to 14.4 percent (Cedarcrest MS). HS transfer-out rates range from 20.9 percent (Marysville Getchell HS) to 32.2 percent (Marysville Pilchuck HS) and transfer-in rates range from 20.2 percent (Marysville Getchell HS) to 22.2 percent (Marysville Pilchuck HS). Enrollment Forecasts: Summary • Figure 15 includes historical and low scenario forecast MSD births, K enrollment, and K-to-birth ratios. • Figure 16 includes K enrollment forecasts and MSD K-to-birth ratios for the low, middle, and high scenarios. • Figure 17 includes historical and low scenario forecast GPRs. • Figure 18 is an overview of the annual district-wide low (preferred), middle, and high forecast scenarios. In the low scenario, K–12 enrollment is expected to decrease by 1,269 students (13.5 percent) from 9,368 in 2023–24 to 8,099 in 2033–34. The middle scenario expects a smaller decrease of 590 students (6.3 percent) in the 10-year horizon, while the high scenario expects a modest increase of 141 students (1.5 percent). Marysville School District Project No. F2690.01.001 March 1, 2024 Page 5 R:\F2690.01 Marysville School District\001_2024.03.01 Forecast Memo\MSD 2024-25 to 2033-34 Enrollment Forecasts Memo.docx © 2024 FLO Analytics • Figure 19 disaggregates the annual low scenario forecasts by grade group. − K–5 enrollment from 4,357 to 4,158 (4.6 percent decrease) − 6–8 enrollment from 2,189 (to 1,799 (17.8 percent decrease) − 9–12 enrollment from 2,822 to 2,142 (24.1 percent decrease) • Figures 20, 21, and 22 include the low, middle, and high scenario enrollment forecasts by individual grade. • Figure 23 includes the low scenario enrollment forecasts by school. Enrollment Forecasts: Detailed Results Historical Births and Kindergarten Enrollment The number of students enrolled in a district is largely influenced by the number of school-aged children residing in the district. We compared historical birth data (i.e., live births to MSD residents from the Washington Department of Health) to historical K class sizes to determine annual K-to-birth ratios (i.e., the number of kindergarteners who enrolled with MSD in comparison to the number of live births to women residing in the district). These values, in combination with age-group-specific population projections of childbearing-aged women residing in the district, allow us to forecast the number of anticipated births to MSD residents, and thus, the number of kindergarteners anticipated in future school years. Figure 15 compares the number of births in MSD—aligned to K cohorts—to historical K enrollment and shows how the observed and forecasted number of births from 2023 to 2028 impacts the K forecasts. The number of births to MSD residents increased each year between 2012–13 (911 births) and 2015–16, reaching a peak within the period of analysis of 999 births. From 2015–16 to 2021–22 there was modest year-to-year variation, but generally the number of births declined, returning to a value similar to 2012–13. Over the 10-year period, there was an average of 949 births to MSD residents per year. In the low scenario, district births are expected to remain nearly constant throughout the forecast period averaging 928 births per year from 2022–23 to 2027–28. K enrollment fluctuated between 2018–19 and 2023–24, including two significant declines. The first, a loss of 125 students, occurred between 2019–20 and 2020–21 and was largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. K enrollment rebounded in 2021–22 by 74 students and again in 2022–23 by 13 students; however, this was followed by the loss of 106 students between 2022–23 and 2023– 24. A key metric is the annual K-to-birth ratio, often referred to as a “capture rate,” which represents a combination of net migration between birth and age five, as well as the share of five-year-old residents enrolled in MSD K classes. Ratios for the District are consistently below 1.00, indicating that fewer kindergarten-aged residents enroll with MSD than the number of births five to six years prior. This indicates that more families with young children move out of the district than into it, and it also accounts for the share of MSD kindergarten-aged residents who enroll in private schools, other districts, or homeschool, rather than with the District. The K-to-birth ratio decreased considerably in 2020–21, mostly likely due to COVID-19, and has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels. In fact, in 2023–24, the ratio decreased to a value even lower than 2020–21. We expect K-to-birth ratios to increase slightly through 2028–29 before stabilizing at 0.77, which is notably lower than the pre- pandemic years of 2018–19 and 2019–20. Figure 16 illustrates how different rates of population growth and K-to-birth ratios may result in divergent scenarios of future K enrollment. The number of future births differs slightly between the low, middle, and high scenarios based on the population of women in child-bearing ages; adjusting Marysville School District Project No. F2690.01.001 March 1, 2024 Page 6 R:\F2690.01 Marysville School District\001_2024.03.01 Forecast Memo\MSD 2024-25 to 2033-34 Enrollment Forecasts Memo.docx © 2024 FLO Analytics the K-to-birth ratios amplifies the differences in K enrollment. In the middle scenario the ratio is expected to increase to 0.73 in 2024–25, increase gradually through 2028–29, and stabilize through 2033–34 at 0.80. The higher ratios result in between 18 and 45 more K students each year than in the low scenario. In the high scenario the ratio is expected to increase to 0.75 in 2024–25, continue to increase gradually through 2028–29, and stabilize through 2033–34 at 0.82. The even higher ratios result in between 37 and 81 more K students each year compared with the low scenario. Grade Progression Ratios The progression of students from one grade to the next is a significant determinant of future enrollment, and therefore plays a significant role in FLO’s forecasting process. FLO assesses how cohort sizes change over time by calculating GPRs—the ratio of enrollment in a specific grade in a given year to the enrollment of the same age cohort in the previous year. For instance, if 100 kindergarteners in 2018–19 were to become 105 1st graders in 2019–20, the GPR would be 1.05. GPRs quantify how cohort sizes change as students progress to subsequent grades, by considering that not all students advance to the next grade and that new students join existing cohorts. A GPR value greater than 1.00 indicates that the student cohort increased in size from one grade to the next. Such a result may be due to students moving into the district or students choosing to transfer into the district from other districts or nonpublic schools. Conversely, a GPR value less than 1.00 indicates that the student cohort decreased in size from one grade to the next. This may be due to students moving out of the district, students choosing to transfer to other districts or nonpublic schools, or students not advancing to the next grade. Figure 17 depicts the GPRs for all K–12 students enrolled in the District from 2018–19 to 2023–24. In transition years 2018–19 to 2019–20 and 2019–20 to 2020–21, GPRs for most grades were less than 1.00, indicating a net loss of students by cohort. In contrast, GPRs for most grades were equal to or greater than 1.00 in the 2020–21 to 2021–22 transition year, indicating a net gain of students by cohort. In the 2022–23 to 2023–24 transition year every GPR is less than 1.00, reflecting the loss of enrollment experienced at each grade level. GPRs for the transition from 10th to 11th grade are consistently the lowest value each year; one reason may be enrollment in Running Start programming. The final three columns in Figure 17 show our assumptions for future GPRs in the low scenario enrollment forecast. Generally, forecasted GPRs are closely aligned with the five- year averages experienced per grade between 2018–19 to 2023–24. District-wide Enrollment Forecasts As shown in Figure 18 in the low scenario, district-wide enrollment is forecasted to decrease from 9,368 in 2023–24 to 8,099 in 2033–34. Enrollment decline is anticipated in each forecast year, mostly in response to the expectations of a lack of growth in the number of births to MSD residents, lower than pre-pandemic K-to-birth ratios, and most cohorts losing students as they progress through the grades. In the next five years, FLO expects the number of births to MSD residents to remain nearly constant through 2027–28 as a response to ongoing population growth paired with the counteracting force of lower births rates, in comparison to the previous decade. K enrollment is expected to generally grow in the forecast period as a result of expected increases in the K-to-birth ratio. Forecasted GPRs for most grades are less than 1.00, indicating existing cohorts and incoming K classes will decrease in size as they advance through the grades, and this incremental loss will lead to district-wide enrollment decline throughout the forecast period. Marysville School District Project No. F2690.01.001 March 1, 2024 Page 7 R:\F2690.01 Marysville School District\001_2024.03.01 Forecast Memo\MSD 2024-25 to 2033-34 Enrollment Forecasts Memo.docx © 2024 FLO Analytics From a grade group perspective (Figure 19), K–5 enrollment is expected to decrease each year from 2023–24 to 2028–29, losing 337 students over the five-year period. Between 2028–29 and 2033– 34, ES enrollment is anticipated to grow each year, but to a lesser extent than the losses in the first five years. Over the 10-year period, ES enrollment is expected to decrease by nearly 200 students (4.6 percent). MS enrollment is also expected to generally decline between 2023–24 and 2028–29, losing 200 students. Losses are anticipated to continue between 2028–29 and 2031–32, but then enrollment is expected to increase in 2032–33 and 2033–34, resulting in a five-year loss of 190 students. Over the 10-year period MS enrollment will decrease by nearly 400 students (17.8 percent). HS enrollment is anticipated to decrease in each year for the forecast period, including potential losses of about 100 students each year in 2025–26 and 2026–27. Over the 10-year period HS enrollment is expected to decrease by 690 students (24.1 percent). These low scenario forecasts for the District are reported by individual grade each year in Figure 20. Figures 21 and 22 report individual grade forecasts for the middle and high scenarios, respectively. Individual School Enrollment Forecasts Figure 23 includes enrollment forecasts for the District’s schools. Different demographics, rates of residential development, and other factors contribute to differing rates of enrollment decline and growth for each school. All 10 elementary schools with attendance areas are expected to experience enrollment decline in the next five years, with Liberty ES and Quil Ceda Tulalip ES expected to decrease by over 50 students. Enrollment at each of the elementary schools except Liberty ES, is expected to increase between 2028–29 and 2033–34. Despite these gains, enrollment is expected to be lower in 2033–34 than in 2023–24 at each elementary school, except for Allen Creek ES (gain of five students). The three middle schools with attendance areas are expected to experience enrollment decline between 2023–24 and 2028–29. In the second five-year period, enrollment at all three middle schools will likely continue to decrease, but at a slower rate than the first five years. Over the 10-year period, enrollment at Cedarcrest MS and Marysville MS is expected to decline by approximately 25 percent, while Totem MS enrollment will decline by more than 35 percent, largely due to the introduction of the choir pathway at 10th Street MS. Enrollment at both high schools with attendance areas is expected to decrease between 2023–24 and 2028–29, including losses of 261 and 171 students at Marysville Getchell HS and Marysville Pilchuck HS, respectively. In the second five-year period, enrollment at both high schools will continue to decline, but to a lesser degree than the first five-year period. Over the 10-year period, enrollment at Marysville Getchell HS is anticipated to decrease by about 28 percent, while enrollment at Marysville Pilchuck HS is expected to decrease by 26 percent. Methodology District-wide Population and Enrollment Forecasts To prepare the 10-year forecasts from 2024–25 to 2033–34, FLO forecasts births through 2028. The birth forecasts depend on population forecasts by age and sex and age-specific birth rates for women of childbearing age. Birth rates estimated for 2020 resulted in a total fertility rate (TFR) estimate of 1.88. The TFR is expected to remain constant at 1.86 for all forecast years through 2028.1 Cohort change ratios based on historical trends are used to forecast 2030 population age 1 TFR is the number of children that would be born to a woman over her child-bearing years, based on age-specific birth rates at a given time. Marysville School District Project No. F2690.01.001 March 1, 2024 Page 8 R:\F2690.01 Marysville School District\001_2024.03.01 Forecast Memo\MSD 2024-25 to 2033-34 Enrollment Forecasts Memo.docx © 2024 FLO Analytics 10 and older by five-year age group and sex.2 Forecasts of population under age 10 in 2030 based on ratios of population to births are added, resulting in 2020 to 2030 population growth of 5,256 in the low scenario, 7,885 in the middle scenario, and 10,397 in the high scenario, compared with 6,826 between 2010 and 2020. The link between our population forecast and MSD district-wide school enrollment forecast occurs at kindergarten, where we use the forecast of births through 2028 and the K-to-birth ratios described previously in the Historical Births and Kindergarten Enrollment section (within Enrollment Forecasts: Detailed Results). Forecasts for grades 1–12 use GPRs based initially on the average GPRs for school years 2016–17 to 2023–24, excluding 2020–21. GPRs embed implicit assumptions about the level of net migration and choices such as enrollment in secondary schools and participation in special programs. Forecasts for Individual Schools Forecasts for each elementary school start with their base year (2023–24) enrollment by individual grade. New K classes each forecast year are initially based on five-year average shares of district- wide K adjusted for the number of additional K students expected based on housing growth. Initial forecasts for grades 1–5 use GPRs unique to each school and grade using a formula based on historical pre-COVID and district-wide GPRs, individually reviewed with respect to outliers and recent GPRs. Initial forecasts for grades 1–5 are also adjusted using expected enrollment impacts of housing growth. Final elementary school forecasts are controlled to match the district-wide K–5 forecasts. Forecasts for entry grades 6th and 9th initially use GPRs based on the historical relationship between the entry grade and each secondary school’s 5th grade and 8th grade feeders. For example, the ratio of 6th grade at Cedarcrest MS to the previous year’s 5th grade at Allen Creek ES, Kellogg Marsh ES, and Sunnyside ES. Subsequent grades 8th for MS and 10–12 for HS use GPRs specific to each school and grade. Final MS and HS forecasts are controlled to match the middle scenario district- wide forecasts by individual grade. Data Sources FLO used the following data sources to inform the enrollment forecasts: • Decennial Census and American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau • Birth data, Washington Department of Health • Population estimates and forecasts, Washington Office of Financial Management • Enrollment data, MSD • Land use data, City of Marysville and Tulalip Tribe • Spatial data, MSD and U.S. Census Bureau Accuracy Enrollment projections and forecasts are expected values based on assessment of current and past data, and as such, should be considered as just one of several planning tools, rather than absolute numbers for the allocation of future resources. Unlike measurable data, such as the results of a survey, projections and forecasts do not allow for the estimation of a confidence interval to measure accuracy. The best way to measure error is to compare actual enrollment with previously prepared 2 Baker, Jack, David A. Swanson, Jeff Tayman, and Lucky M. Tedrow. Cohort change ratios and their applications. Springer International Publishing, 2017. Marysville School District Project No. F2690.01.001 March 1, 2024 Page 9 R:\F2690.01 Marysville School District\001_2024.03.01 Forecast Memo\MSD 2024-25 to 2033-34 Enrollment Forecasts Memo.docx © 2024 FLO Analytics projections or forecasts that were conducted using similar data and methodologies. Finally, when considering confidence and accuracy, the appropriate use of projections and forecasts includes an understanding that there is likely to be some degree of variation from the anticipated values. It is important that stakeholders monitor and manage the changing conditions that will affect future populations, and that projections or forecasts be updated either at a regular frequency, or when deviation of actual enrollment from the projections or forecasts is significant. Figure 1: District Overview 0 1.5 30.75 Miles¯ nm Elementary School nm Middle School nm High School District Boundary City or Unincorporated Place Elementary School Attendance Area High School Attendance Area Middle School Attendance Area Cedarcrest MS Marysville MS Totem MS nn n n mm m m n n n nm m m m n n n n n n n n n n nm m m m m m m m m m m Everett Granite Falls Arlington Lake Stevens MarysvilleLangley 10th Street MS Cedarcrest MS Totem MS Marysville MSLegacy HS Heritage HS Marysville Pilchuck HS Marysville Getchell HS Marysville Co-Op Grove ES Kellogg Marsh ES Allen Creek ES Cascade ES Pinewood ES Quil Ceda Tulalip ES Shoultes ES Sunnyside ES Liberty ES Marshall ES Part of Pinewood ES # Label Figure 2: Student Density ¯0 1.5 30.75 Miles nm Elementary School nm Middle School nm High School District Boundary City or Unincorporated Place Elementary School Attendance Area Middle School Attendance Area High School Attendance Area Student Residence Dense Sparse nn n n mm m m n n n nm m m m n n n n n n n n n n nm m m m m m m m m m m Everett Granite Falls Arlington Lake Stevens Marysville Langley 10th Street MS Cedarcrest MS Totem MS Marysville MSLegacy HS Heritage HS Marysville Pilchuck HS MarysvilleGetchell HS Marysville Co-Op Grove ES KelloggMarsh ES Allen Creek ES Cascade ES Pinewood ES Quil CedaTulalip ES Shoultes ES Sunnyside ES Liberty ES Marshall ES Figure 3: County, District, and City Population: 2000 to 2020 2000‒2010 2010‒2020 Snohomish County 606,024 713,335 827,957 1.6%1.5% Marysville School District (MSD) 57,441 69,169 75,995 1.9%0.9% MSD Unincorporated Area 32,427 14,106 14,824 -8.0% 0.5% Marysville (all) *25,315 60,020 70,714 9.0%1.7% MSD Portion 25,014 55,063 61,171 8.2%1.1% Figure 4: MSD Population by Age Group: 2000 to 2020 2000‒2010 2010‒2020 Total Population 57,441 69,169 75,995 1.9%0.9% Age 18 and over 40,204 50,944 58,354 2.4%1.4% Under age 18 17,237 18,225 17,641 0.6% -0.3% Under 18 share of total 30%26%23%---- Figure 5: Snohomish County Population Projections 2020‒2030 2030‒2040 Snohomish County Low Series 827,957 868,093 943,434 0.5%0.8% Snohomish County Medium Series 827,957 935,370 1,039,254 1.2%1.1% Snohomish County High Series 827,957 1,023,820 1,163,254 2.1%1.3% Notes Sources Figures 3 and 4: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000, 2010, and 2020 Censuses. 2030 Projection 2040 Projection Average Annual Growth * Marysville more than doubled in population from 2000 to 2010. A large contributor to this growth was a series of annexations of unincorporated Snohomish County. Indentation signifies the nesting of geographic areas or variables. For instance, in Figure 3 the school district is indented because it is part of the county. In Figure 4, Age 18 and over is indented because it is a component of total population. Figure 5: State of Washington, Office of Financial Management, Growth Management Act County Projections, December 2022. 2000 2010 2020 Average Annual Growth 2000 2010 2020 Average Annual Growth 2020 Census Figure 6: Student Generation Rates Housing Type Housing Units K‒5 Students 6‒8 Students 9‒12 Students K‒5 SGR 6‒8 SGR 9‒12 SGR K‒12 SGR Single-family Detached 1,007 244 95 110 0.242 0.094 0.109 0.446 Plex/Townhome 86 11 5 4 0.128 0.058 0.047 0.233 Multifamily 353 24 15 19 0.068 0.042 0.054 0.164 K‒12 Students per Housing Unit Built 2015‒2022 Notes The plex/townhome category includes the following structure types: duplex, triplex, fourplex, multifamily 2–4 units, townhomes, and single-family attached. Housing units built in 2023 are excluded, because they may not have been completed and occupied by October 2023. Sources Marysville School District 2023–24 headcount enrollment, Snohomish County parcels, and Puget Sound Regional Council 2015‒2022 new housing inventory. Correspond to Map IDs on Figure 8.# Label Figure 7: Residential Development ¯0 1.5 30.75 Miles District Boundary Elementary School Attendance Area Middle School Attendance Area High School Attendance Area City or Unincorporated Place Single-family Housing Developments Housing Units !(2 to 10 !(11 to 25 !(26 to 48 Multifamily Housing Developments Housing Units 4 to 25 26 to 50 51 to 116 !(!( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( !( nn n n mm m m n n n nm m m m n n n n n n n n n n nm m m m m m m m m m m MA05 MA10 MA19 MA23 MA25 MA29 MA33 MA35 MA37 MA41 MA42 TT43 MA01 MA02 MA03 MA04 MA06 MA07 MA08 MA09 MA11 MA12 MA13 MA14 MA15 MA16 MA18 MA20 MA21 MA22 MA24 MA26 MA27 MA28 MA30 MA31 MA32 MA34 MA36 MA38 MA39 MA40 TT44 MA45 Figure 8: Residential Development Map ID Jurisdiction Elementary School Attendance Area Middle School Attendance Area High School Attendance Area Development Name Type Total Units 2024–2028 Units 2028–2033 Units 2024–2034 Units Notes MA01 Marysville Pinewood ES Totem MS Marysville Pilchuck HS 51st Avenue Short Plat SF 3 0 3 3 Preliminary Approval; Three lot short plat, retain existing duplex, add two new single family lots MA02 Marysville Pinewood ES Totem MS Marysville Pilchuck HS 53rd Ave Short Plat SF4044 Under Review MA03 Marysville Kellogg Marsh ES Cedarcrest MS Marysville Getchell HS 67th Avenue Townhomes PT 30 30 0 30 Under Construction; 30 unit townhouse MA04 Marysville Marshall ES Totem MS Marysville Pilchuck HS 113th Place Townhomes PT 17 17 0 17 Under Construction; 17-unit townhouse MA05 Marysville Marshall ES Totem MS Marysville Pilchuck HS AHM - Smokey Point Apartments MF 80 80 0 80 Under Construction; 80-unit multi-family residential development, including three 3-story buildings MA06 Marysville Allen Creek ES Cedarcrest MS Marysville Getchell HS Alexander Reed Short Plat SF6066 Under Review; 6- lot short plat MA07 Marysville Sunnyside ES Cedarcrest MS Marysville Getchell HS Alvin Short Plat SF6066 Preliminary Approval; 6 lot short plat MA08 Marysville Liberty ES Marysville MS Marysville Getchell HS Armar Road Townhomes PT 17 9 9 17 Preliminary Approval; 17-unit Townhome MA09 Marysville Marshall ES Totem MS Marysville Pilchuck HS Balam Sixplex PT6606 Under Construction; 6-unit townhouse MA10 Marysville Liberty ES Marysville MS Marysville Getchell HS Beach Avenue Multi-Family Apartments MF 21 21 0 21 Under Construction; 21-unit market rate apartments MA11 Marysville Sunnyside ES Cedarcrest MS Marysville Getchell HS Brookside Trails Plat SF 23 7 16 23 Preliminary Approval; 23-lot single family subdivision MA12 Marysville Sunnyside ES Cedarcrest MS Marysville Getchell HS Carney Subdivision SF 22 22 0 22 Under Review; 22-lot subdivision MA13 Marysville Allen Creek ES Cedarcrest MS Marysville Getchell HS Chapel Hill Subdivision SF 23 0 23 23 Under Review; 23-lot subdivision MA14 Marysville Marshall ES Totem MS Marysville Pilchuck HS Compass Invesco Townhomes PT 29 29 0 29 Preliminary Approval; 29-unit townhouse MA15 Marysville Cascade ES Marysville MS Marysville Pilchuck HS GHAG SHORT PLAT SF5505 Under Construction; 5 LOT SHORT PLAT MA16 Marysville Allen Creek ES Cedarcrest MS Marysville Getchell HS Gidey Short Plat SF5505 Under Construction; 5-lot short plat MA18 Marysville Grove ES Marysville MS Marysville Getchell HS Gorbunova Short Plat SF3303 Preliminary Approval; 3-lot short plat MA19 Marysville Liberty ES Marysville MS Marysville Getchell HS Grove Street Dental Clinic MF 4 4 0 4 Under Construction; 5,922 SF dental office and 4-one bedroom apartments. MA20 Marysville Kellogg Marsh ES Cedarcrest MS Marysville Getchell HS Haile Short Plat SF4404 Under Construction; 4-Lot short subdivision MA21 Marysville Quil Ceda Tulalip ES Totem MS Marysville Pilchuck HS Harborview Heights SF2022 Under Review; 2-lot short subdivision MA22 Marysville Shoultes ES Marysville MS Marysville Pilchuck HS Hidden Valley Short Plat SF5055 Under Review; 5-lot Short Plat/PRD MA23 Marysville Liberty ES Marysville MS Marysville Getchell HS Home Plus LLC MF6606 Under Construction; 6-unit MFR MA24 Marysville Pinewood ES Totem MS Marysville Pilchuck HS Hsiao Short Plat SF5505 Preliminary Approval; 5 lot short plat MA25 Marysville Allen Creek ES Cedarcrest MS Marysville Getchell HS Kahlon PRD MF 12 12 0 12 Under Construction; 12-unit PRD/BSP MA26 Marysville Cascade ES Marysville MS Marysville Pilchuck HS Linscott-Kirk Short Plat SF3033 Under Review; 3-lot short plat MA27 Marysville Marshall ES Totem MS Marysville Pilchuck HS Mack Townhomes PT 22 22 0 22 Under Construction; 22-unit Townhouse Development MA28 Marysville Sunnyside ES Cedarcrest MS Marysville Getchell HS Maplewood Crossing PRD SF 43 43 0 43 Under Construction; 43-lot PRD/BSP MA29 Marysville Cascade ES Marysville MS Marysville Pilchuck HS Margaret Estates Apartments MF 58 0 58 58 Under Review; 58-unit Multi-family Development MA30 Marysville Sunnyside ES Cedarcrest MS Marysville Getchell HS Marysville 44th PRD SF 35 0 35 35 Under Review; Planned Residential Development (PRD) and preliminary Binding Site Plan (BSP) approval with State Environmental Policy Act (SEPA) Review in order to construct 35 single-family detached units on 9.36 acres. MA31 Marysville Grove ES Marysville MS Marysville Getchell HS Marysville Investor SF7707 Under Construction; 7-lot short plat MA32 Marysville Pinewood ES Totem MS Marysville Pilchuck HS MSR Tuscany Woods Townhomes PT 37 26 11 37 Preliminary Approval; Thirty-seven unit townhome development and associated improvements. MA33 Marysville Liberty ES Marysville MS Marysville Getchell HS PA20046 MF 21 13 8 21 Preliminary Approval; 21 unit market-rate apartments MA34 Marysville Grove ES Marysville MS Marysville Getchell HS Rajamani Short Plat SF2202 Preliminary Approval; 2 lot short plat MA35 Marysville Shoultes ES Marysville MS Marysville Pilchuck HS Remington Place Apartments MF 116 116 0 116 Under Construction; 116-unit Apartment Complex MA36 Marysville Cascade ES Marysville MS Marysville Pilchuck HS Scott Ray Townhomes PT 22 15 7 22 Preliminary Approval; 22-lot subdivision with 20 new townhome units MA37 Marysville Liberty ES Marysville MS Marysville Getchell HS Smoots Mixed Use MF 12 12 0 12 Preliminary Approval; 3-story mixed use building - 3,200 sq. ft. commercial space with (12) multi-family dwelling units MA38 Marysville Cascade ES Marysville MS Marysville Pilchuck HS SP22-001 Linscott Short Plat SF4044 Preliminary Approval; 4 lot short plat MA39 Marysville Sunnyside ES Cedarcrest MS Marysville Getchell HS Stoney Ridge Short Plat SF9909 Under Construction; 9-lot Subdivision Figure 8: Residential Development Map ID Jurisdiction Elementary School Attendance Area Middle School Attendance Area High School Attendance Area Development Name Type Total Units 2024–2028 Units 2028–2033 Units 2024–2034 Units Notes MA40 Marysville Sunnyside ES Cedarcrest MS Marysville Getchell HS Sunnyside Village Co-Housing PT 32 10 22 32 Preliminary Approval; Preliminary Subdivision with Conditional Use Permit and SEPA Environmental Review for the construction of a 32-lot cottage housing development MA41 Marysville Liberty ES Marysville MS Marysville Getchell HS Sunrise Grove Apartments MF 16 16 0 16 Preliminary Approval; New 3-story, 16-unit apartment building MA42 Marysville Liberty ES Marysville MS Marysville Getchell HS Terimar Apartments MF 30 0 30 30 Under Review; 30-unit market rate apartments MA45 Marysville Sunnyside ES Cedarcrest MS Marysville Getchell HS Wyndham Hills PRD2 SF 48 48 0 48 Under Construction; 48-lot PRD/BSP TT43 Tulalip Tribe Quil Ceda Tulalip ES Totem MS Marysville Pilchuck HS Tulalip Tribe MF1 MF 84 84 0 84 Preliminary Approval TT44 Tulalip Tribe Quil Ceda Tulalip ES Totem MS Marysville Pilchuck HS Tulalip Tribe SF1 SF 26 26 0 26 Under Construction SF 460 364 96 460 PT 212 163 49 212 MF 293 186 107 293 Notes Sources City of Marysville and Tulalip Tribe. Total MF SF is single-family detached, MF is multifamily, and PT is plex/townhome. The plex/townhome category includes the following structure types: duplex, triplex, fourplex, multifamily 2–4 units, townhomes, and single-family attached. The anticipated phasing of construction is based on the known status of projects as of winter 2023–24. Total PT Total SF Figure 9: Historical Enrollment by Grade Grade 2018‒19 2019‒20 2020‒21 2021‒22 2022‒23 2023‒24 2018‒19 to 2023‒24 K 788 808 683 757 770 664 -124 1 810 780 715 740 762 761 -49 2 891 795 738 737 760 757 -134 3 863 853 770 740 741 747 -116 4 782 830 802 793 744 709 -73 5 945 768 796 771 799 719 -226 6 847 889 765 778 747 754 -93 7 779 833 867 736 734 710 -69 8 792 754 823 864 713 725 -67 9 744 782 760 814 841 694 -50 10 815 751 791 763 809 800 -15 11 706 647 661 736 694 700 -6 12 756 660 654 675 667 628 -128 District-wide Total 10,518 10,150 9,825 9,904 9,781 9,368 -1,150 Notes Sources Marysville School District October 2018–19 to 2023–24 headcount enrollment. Students enrolled in Open Doors and full-time Running Start are excluded from analysis. The lowest and highest enrollment values per grade are highlighted blue and orange, respectively. Abrupt changes in enrollment are likely due to deliberate student placement or attendance boundary changes. Figure 10: Historical Enrollment by School and Grade Group School Name 2018‒19 2019‒20 2020‒21 2021‒22 2022‒23 2023‒24 2018‒19 to 2023‒24 Allen Creek ES 515 484 579 425 468 469 -46 Cascade ES 437 405 364 380 414 409 -28 Grove ES 457 437 391 367 376 375 -82 Kellogg Marsh ES 506 481 461 464 471 451 -55 Liberty ES 434 427 387 415 440 417 -17 Marshall ES-Marysville Co-Op *627 582 517 527 523 479 -148 Pinewood ES 577 547 504 476 467 420 -157 Quil Ceda Tulalip ES 536 513 439 477 515 492 -44 Shoultes ES 458 426 382 395 394 372 -86 Sunnyside ES 515 522 459 479 475 466 -49 SHoPP †14 8 21 132 30 5 -9 Entity ID 598 3 2 0 1 3 2 -1 K‒5 Total 5,079 4,834 4,504 4,538 4,576 4,357 -722 Cedarcrest MS 809 855 853 806 762 751 -58 Marysville MS 855 853 839 733 649 670 -185 Totem MS 556 561 559 557 558 584 28 10th Street MS 175 178 175 170 160 163 -12 SHoPP †21 26 24 107 59 17 -4 Entity ID 598 2 3 5 5 6 4 2 6‒8 Total 2,418 2,476 2,455 2,378 2,194 2,189 -229 Marysville Getchell HS 1,491 1,336 1,335 1,399 1,405 1,344 -147 Marysville Pilchuck HS 1,151 1,121 1,131 1,169 1,216 1,183 32 Heritage HS 76 96 92 88 89 119 43 Legacy HS †0 263 280 315 274 151 151 MMVAT 277 0 0 0 0 0 -277 Entity ID 598 26 24 28 17 27 25 -1 9‒12 Total 3,021 2,840 2,866 2,988 3,011 2,822 -199 District-wide Total 10,518 10,150 9,825 9,904 9,781 9,368 -1,150 Notes * Effectively two programs on a single school campus. † Includes students enrolled in Marysville Online in 2021–22 and 2022–23. Entity ID 598 is comprised of 18-21 Year Old, Sp. Ed. Out of District, and Sp. Ed. Other. Sources Marysville School District October 2018–19 to 2023–24 headcount enrollment. Students enrolled in Open Doors and full-time Running Start are excluded from analysis. The lowest and highest enrollment values per school are highlighted blue and orange, respectively. Abrupt changes in enrollment are likely due to deliberate student placement or attendance boundary changes. Figure 11: District-wide Transfer Rates Grade Group Enrollment Total Enrollment In-District Enrollment Out-of-District Transfers Intra-district Transfers Total Transfer Rate Out-of-District Transfer Rate Intra-district Transfer Rate Total K–5 4,357 4,294 63 509 572 1.4%11.9%13.1% 6–8 2,189 2,161 28 363 391 1.3%16.8%17.9% 9–12 2,822 2,712 110 695 805 3.9%25.6%28.5% District-wide 9,368 9,167 201 1,567 1,768 2.1%17.1%18.9% Notes Sources Marysville School District 2023–24 attendance areas and October 2023–24 headcount enrollment. Students enrolled in Open Doors and full-time Running Start are excluded from analysis. Enrollment from within the district are students that reside within the district boundary, whereas out-of-district enrollment are students that reside outside the district boundary. Intra-district transfers are students that enroll in a school other than their neighborhood school based on the attendance area that they reside in. Total transfers are the sum of out-of-district enrollment and intra-district transfers. Figure 12: Grade K‒5 Residence-Attendance Matrix Attendance Area Residence Count Al l e n C r e e k E S Ca s c a d e E S Gr o v e E S Ke l l o g g M a r s h E S Li b e r t y E S Ma r s h a l l E S - Ma r y s v i l l e C o - O p Pi n e w o o d E S Qu i l C e d a T u l a l i p E S Sh o u l t e s E S Su n n y s i d e E S En t i t y I D 5 9 8 SH o P P Capture Rate Transfer Out Student Total Transfer Out Rate Allen Creek ES 470 376 1 8 11 23 12 11 17 5 4 0 2 80.0%94 20.0% Cascade ES 486 6 384 19 12 3 19 31 1 9 2 0 0 79.0%102 21.0% Grove ES 334 10 4 296 5 10 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 88.6%38 11.4% Kellogg Marsh ES 433 4 2 9 379 10 15 10 3 0 1 0 0 87.5%54 12.5% Liberty ES 388 11 0 18 7 326 8 6 6 2 3 1 0 84.0%62 16.0% Marshall ES-Marysville Co-Op 324 2 6 3 1 2 292 15 2 1 0 0 0 90.1%32 9.9% Pinewood ES 365 4 4 7 10 5 19 305 5 4 1 0 1 83.6%60 16.4% Quil Ceda Tulalip ES 563 23 1 3 2 9 53 8 452 6 5 0 1 80.3%111 19.7% Shoultes ES 417 4 2 2 4 5 35 18 1 341 4 0 1 81.8%76 18.2% Sunnyside ES 514 19 1 5 14 18 10 5 0 1 440 1 0 85.6%74 14.4% K-5 Subtotals 4,294 459 405 370 445 411 468 413 487 369 460 2 5 83.6%703 16.4% Out of District 63 10 4 5 6 6 11 7 5 3 6 0 0 ------ K–5 Totals 4,357 469 409 375 451 417 479 420 492 372 466 2 5 ------ Transfer In Student Total 572 93 25 79 72 91 187 115 40 31 26 2 5 ------ Transfer In Rate 13.1%19.8%6.1%21.1%16.0%21.8%39.0%27.4%8.1%8.3%5.6%100%100%------ Notes Sources Marysville School District 2023–24 attendance areas and October 2023–24 headcount enrollment. Students enrolled in Open Doors and full-time Running Start are excluded from analysis. AttendanceArea School of Attendance Figure 13: Grade 6‒8 Residence-Attendance Matrix Attendance Area Residence Count Ce d a r c r e s t M S Ma r y s v i l l e M S To t e m M S 10 t h S t r e e t M S En t i t y I D 5 9 8 SH o P P Capture Rate Transfer Out Student Total Transfer Out Rate Cedarcrest MS 722 643 10 15 50 0 4 89.1%79 10.9% Marysville MS 809 77 625 50 46 3 8 77.3%184 22.7% Totem MS 630 24 27 509 66 1 3 80.8%121 19.2% 6–8 Subtotals 2,161 744 662 574 162 4 15 82.2%384 17.8% Out of District 28 7 8 10 1 0 2 ------ 6–8 Totals 2,189 751 670 584 163 4 17 ------ Transfer In Student Total 412 108 45 75 163 4 17 ------ Transfer In Rate 18.8%14.4%6.7%12.8%100%100%100%------ Notes Sources Marysville School District 2023–24 attendance areas and October 2023–24 headcount enrollment. Students enrolled in Open Doors and full-time Running Start are excluded from analysis. AttendanceArea School ofAttendance Figure 14: Grade 9‒12 Residence-Attendance Matrix Attendance Area Residence Count Ma r y s v i l l e G e t c h e l l HS Ma r y s v i l l e P i l c h u c k HS En t i t y I D 5 9 8 He r i t a g e H S Le g a c y H S Capture Rate Transfer Out Student Total Transfer Out Rate Marysville Getchell HS 1,355 1,072 193 9 18 63 79.1%283 20.9% Marysville Pilchuck HS 1,357 242 920 14 97 84 67.8%437 32.2% 9–12 Subtotals 2,712 1,314 1,113 23 115 147 73.5%720 26.5% Out of District 110 30 70 2 4 4 ------ 9–12 Totals 2,822 1,344 1,183 25 119 151 ------ Transfer In Student Total 830 272 263 25 119 151 ------ Transfer In Rate 29.4%20.2%22.2%100%100%100%------ Notes Sources Marysville School District 2023–24 attendance areas and October 2023–24 headcount enrollment. Students enrolled in Open Doors and full-time Running Start are excluded from analysis. School of Attendance AttendanceArea Figure 15: District Births and Kindergarten Enrollment Forecasts Birth Year 12–13 13–14 14–15 15–16 16–17 17–18 18–19 19–20 20–21 21–22 22–23 23–24 24–25 25–26 26–27 27–28 Births 911 922 964 999 994 955 936 962 939 908 926 927 928 929 930 931 Forecasts School Year 18‒19 19‒20 20‒21 21‒22 22‒23 23‒24 24‒25 25‒26 26‒27 27‒28 28‒29 29‒30 30‒31 31‒32 32‒33 33‒34 Kindergarten 788 808 683 757 770 664 665 702 704 690 713 713 714 715 716 717 Ratio to Births 0.86 0.88 0.71 0.76 0.77 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 Notes Sources Washington Department of Health 2012 to 2022 births to mothers residing within the district boundary. Marysville School District October 2018–19 to 2023–24 headcount enrollment and FLO October 2024–25 to 2033–34 enrollment forecasts (low scenario). Enrollment includes students residing outside of the district boundary. Birth cohorts are aligned with K cohorts (e.g., the 2017–18 birth year represents births from September 2017 to August 2018, which is the 2023–24 K year). The ratio is calculated by dividing each K enrollment by the births five years earlier (e.g., 2023–24 K divided by 2017–18 births). Births from 2023 to 2028, which inform K classes beginning with the 2028–29 school year, were forecasted based on projections of women of childbearing age and estimated age-specific birth rates. 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 12–13 13–14 14–15 15–16 16–17 17–18 18–19 19–20 20–21 21–22 22–23 23–24 24–25 25–26 26–27 27–28 18‒19 19‒20 20‒21 21‒22 22‒23 23‒24 24‒25 25‒26 26‒27 27‒28 28‒29 29‒30 30‒31 31‒32 32‒33 33‒34 Bi r t h s a n d K E n r o l l m e n t District Births Kindergarten Birth Forecasts K Forecasts Birth Year School Year Birth Year School Year Figure 16: Kindergarten Enrollment and Ratio to Births K Enrollment Forecasts Scenario 18‒19 19‒20 20‒21 21‒22 22‒23 23‒24 24‒25 25‒26 26‒27 27‒28 28‒29 29‒30 30‒31 31‒32 32‒33 33‒34 Low 664 665 702 704 690 713 713 714 715 716 717 Ratio to Births 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 Middle 788 808 683 757 770 664 683 731 732 717 745 750 753 756 759 762 Ratio to Births 0.86 0.88 0.71 0.76 0.77 0.70 0.73 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 High 664 702 750 751 735 768 776 782 787 792 798 Ratio to Births 0.70 0.75 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 Notes Sources Enrollment includes students residing outside of the district boundary. The ratios are calculated by dividing each K enrollment by the birth five years earlier (e.g., October 2023–24 K divided by 2017–18 births). Washington Department of Health 2012 to 2022 births to mothers residing within the district boundary. Marysville October 2018–19 to 2023–24 enrollment and FLO October 2024–25 to 2033–34 enrollment forecasts (low, middle, and high scenarios). 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 18‒19 19‒20 20‒21 21‒22 22‒23 23‒24 24‒25 25‒26 26‒27 27‒28 28‒29 29‒30 30‒31 31‒32 32‒33 33‒34 Ki n d e r g a r t e n E n r o l l m e n t School Year Low Scenario Middle Scenario High Scenario Figure 17: Grade Progression Ratios Grade Progression Ratios 2018‒19 to 2019‒20 2019‒20 to 2020‒21 2020‒21 to 2021‒22 2021‒22 to 2022‒23 2022‒23 to 2023‒24 2023‒24 to 2024‒25 2024‒25 to 2025‒26 2025‒26 to 2033‒34 K‒1 0.99 0.88 1.08 1.01 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.99 1‒2 0.98 0.95 1.03 1.03 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 2‒3 0.96 0.97 1.00 1.01 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.98 3‒4 0.96 0.94 1.03 1.01 0.96 0.98 0.98 0.98 4‒5 0.98 0.96 0.96 1.01 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 5‒6 0.94 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.94 0.96 0.96 0.96 6‒7 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 7‒8 0.97 0.99 1.00 0.97 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 8‒9 0.99 1.01 0.99 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 9‒10 1.01 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.95 0.99 0.98 0.98 10‒11 0.79 0.88 0.93 0.91 0.87 0.89 0.88 0.88 11‒12 0.93 1.01 1.02 0.91 0.90 0.94 0.95 0.95 Notes Sources Marysville School District October 2018–19 to 2023–24 enrollment and FLO October 2024–25 to 2033–34 enrollment forecasts (low scenario). Grade progression ratios (GPRs) are calculated as the ratio of enrollment in a specific grade in a given year to the enrollment of the same age cohort in the previous year. GPRs quantify how cohort sizes change as students progress from one grade to the next, accounting for new students that join an existing cohort and for students that do not advance to the next grade. For instance, 150 kindergarteners in 2018–19 becoming 140 first graders in 2019–20 yields a K–1 GPR of 0.93. A GPR value greater than 1.00 indicates that the student cohort increased in size from one grade to the next. Conversely, a GPR value less than 1.00 indicates that the student cohort decreased in size from one grade to the next. Figure 18: District-wide Enrollment Forecasts: Low, Middle, and High Scenarios Notes Sources Marysville School District October 2023–24 enrollment and FLO October 2024–25 to 2033–34 enrollment forecasts (low, middle, and high scenarios). Students enrolled in Open Doors and full-time Running Start are excluded from analysis. 2018– 19 2019– 20 2020– 21 2021– 22 2022– 23 2023– 24 2024– 25 2025– 26 2026– 27 2027– 28 2028– 29 2029– 30 2030– 31 2031– 32 2032– 33 2033– 34 High 9,368 9,404 9,339 9,247 9,238 9,236 9,274 9,299 9,368 9,451 9,509 Middle 10,518 10,150 9,825 9,904 9,781 9,368 9,265 9,142 8,980 8,899 8,830 8,793 8,746 8,751 8,774 8,778 Low 9,368 9,137 8,906 8,674 8,532 8,406 8,312 8,217 8,170 8,143 8,099 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 2032–33 2033–34 High 9,368 9,404 9,339 9,247 9,238 9,236 9,274 9,299 9,368 9,451 9,509 Middle 10,518 10,150 9,825 9,904 9,781 9,368 9,265 9,142 8,980 8,899 8,830 8,793 8,746 8,751 8,774 8,778 Low 9,368 9,137 8,906 8,674 8,532 8,406 8,312 8,217 8,170 8,143 8,099 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 Figure 19: District-wide Enrollment Forecasts by Grade Group Notes Sources Marysville School District October 2023–24 enrollment and FLO October 2024–25 to 2033–34 enrollment forecasts (low scenario). Students enrolled in Open Doors and full-time Running Start are excluded from analysis. 2018– 19 2019– 20 2020– 21 2021– 22 2022– 23 2023– 24 2024– 25 2025– 26 2026– 27 2027– 28 2028– 29 2029– 30 2030– 31 2031– 32 2032– 33 2033– 34 K‒5 5,079 4,834 4,504 4,538 4,576 4,357 4,266 4,217 4,149 4,072 4,020 4,064 4,112 4,123 4,135 4,158 6‒8 2,418 2,476 2,455 2,378 2,194 2,189 2,110 2,037 1,974 1,970 1,989 1,893 1,802 1,746 1,777 1,799 9‒12 3,021 2,840 2,866 2,988 3,011 2,822 2,761 2,652 2,551 2,490 2,397 2,355 2,303 2,301 2,231 2,142 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 Forecasts Figure 20: Enrollment Forecasts by Individual Grade: Low Scenario Grade 2023‒24 2024‒25 2025‒26 2026‒27 2027‒28 2028‒29 2029‒30 2030‒31 2031‒32 2032‒33 2033‒34 K 664 665 702 704 690 713 713 714 715 716 717 1 761 661 659 695 697 684 706 706 707 708 709 2 757 762 658 656 692 694 681 703 703 704 705 3 747 748 749 647 645 681 682 670 691 691 692 4 709 735 732 733 633 631 667 668 656 676 676 5 719 695 717 714 715 617 615 651 651 640 659 6 754 690 667 689 686 687 593 591 625 625 615 7 710 726 661 639 660 657 658 568 566 599 599 8 725 694 709 646 624 645 642 643 555 553 585 9 694 708 681 696 634 612 633 630 631 545 543 10 800 686 697 670 685 624 602 623 620 621 536 11 700 709 604 614 590 603 550 530 549 546 547 12 628 658 670 571 581 558 570 520 501 519 516 K‒5 4,357 4,266 4,217 4,149 4,072 4,020 4,064 4,112 4,123 4,135 4,158 6‒8 2,189 2,110 2,037 1,974 1,970 1,989 1,893 1,802 1,746 1,777 1,799 9‒12 2,822 2,761 2,652 2,551 2,490 2,397 2,355 2,303 2,301 2,231 2,142 Total 9,368 9,137 8,906 8,674 8,532 8,406 8,312 8,217 8,170 8,143 8,099 Notes Students enrolled in Open Doors and full-time Running Start are excluded from analysis. Sources Marysville School District October 2023–24 headcount enrollment and FLO 2024–25 to 2033–34 enrollment forecasts (low scenario). Figure 21: Enrollment Forecasts by Individual Grade: Middle Scenario Grade 2023‒24 2024‒25 2025‒26 2026‒27 2027‒28 2028‒29 2029‒30 2030‒31 2031‒32 2032‒33 2033‒34 K 664 683 731 732 717 745 750 753 756 759 762 1 761 674 690 731 732 717 745 750 753 756 759 2 757 769 671 687 728 729 714 742 747 750 753 3 747 756 764 667 682 723 724 709 737 742 745 4 709 746 751 755 660 674 715 716 701 729 734 5 719 702 728 732 736 644 657 697 698 684 711 6 754 698 681 706 710 714 625 638 676 677 664 7 710 734 672 656 680 684 688 602 614 651 652 8 725 701 721 660 644 668 672 675 591 603 639 9 694 715 691 711 651 635 659 663 666 583 595 10 800 693 714 690 710 650 634 658 662 665 582 11 700 729 631 650 628 647 592 577 599 603 606 12 628 665 697 603 621 600 618 566 551 572 576 K‒5 4,357 4,330 4,335 4,304 4,255 4,232 4,305 4,367 4,392 4,420 4,464 6‒8 2,189 2,133 2,074 2,022 2,034 2,066 1,985 1,915 1,881 1,931 1,955 9‒12 2,822 2,802 2,733 2,654 2,610 2,532 2,503 2,464 2,478 2,423 2,359 Total 9,368 9,265 9,142 8,980 8,899 8,830 8,793 8,746 8,751 8,774 8,778 Notes Students enrolled in Open Doors and full-time Running Start are excluded from analysis. Sources Marysville School District October 2023–24 headcount enrollment and FLO 2024–25 to 2033–34 enrollment forecasts (middle scenario). Figure 22: Enrollment Forecasts by Individual Grade: High Scenario Grade 2023‒24 2024‒25 2025‒26 2026‒27 2027‒28 2028‒29 2029‒30 2030‒31 2031‒32 2032‒33 2033‒34 K 664 702 750 751 735 768 776 782 787 792 798 1 761 684 706 754 755 739 772 780 786 791 796 2 757 781 695 717 766 767 751 784 792 798 803 3 747 760 780 694 716 765 766 750 783 791 797 4 709 754 763 783 697 719 768 769 753 786 794 5 719 713 747 756 775 690 712 761 762 746 778 6 754 712 699 732 741 760 676 698 746 747 731 7 710 737 689 677 709 717 736 654 676 722 723 8 725 704 727 680 668 700 708 726 645 667 712 9 694 726 694 717 671 659 690 698 716 636 658 10 800 697 725 693 716 670 658 689 697 715 635 11 700 737 638 664 635 656 614 603 631 638 655 12 628 697 726 629 654 626 647 605 594 622 629 K‒5 4,357 4,394 4,441 4,455 4,444 4,448 4,545 4,626 4,663 4,704 4,766 6‒8 2,189 2,153 2,115 2,089 2,118 2,177 2,120 2,078 2,067 2,136 2,166 9‒12 2,822 2,857 2,783 2,703 2,676 2,611 2,609 2,595 2,638 2,611 2,577 Total 9,368 9,404 9,339 9,247 9,238 9,236 9,274 9,299 9,368 9,451 9,509 Notes Students enrolled in Open Doors and full-time Running Start are excluded from analysis. Sources Marysville School District October 2023–24 headcount enrollment and FLO 2024–25 to 2033–34 enrollment forecasts (high scenario). Figure 23: Enrollment Forecasts by School/Program School Name 2023‒24 2024‒25 2025‒26 2026‒27 2027‒28 2028‒29 2029‒30 2030‒31 2031‒32 2032‒33 2033‒34 Allen Creek ES 469 462 462 462 461 450 470 473 469 471 474 Cascade ES 409 392 391 396 391 382 376 381 382 382 384 Grove ES 375 376 373 378 373 364 357 361 362 363 366 Kellogg Marsh ES 451 447 440 438 409 416 419 423 425 427 429 Liberty ES 417 408 384 381 371 363 356 359 360 362 363 Marshall ES-Marysville Co-Op * 479 483 481 467 457 455 458 464 466 467 469 Pinewood ES 420 403 387 372 368 373 383 387 390 391 393 Quil Ceda Tulalip ES 492 486 480 456 443 431 436 443 445 447 449 Shoultes ES 372 354 360 342 340 342 351 356 358 359 362 Sunnyside ES 466 444 448 446 448 433 447 454 455 455 458 SHoPP 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Entity ID 598 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 K‒5 Total 4,357 4,266 4,217 4,149 4,072 4,020 4,064 4,112 4,123 4,135 4,158 Cedarcrest MS 751 712 657 627 617 636 595 557 532 559 570 Marysville MS 670 647 614 556 545 549 545 517 495 488 494 Totem MS 584 505 460 425 442 438 387 362 353 364 369 10th Street MS 163 225 285 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 SHoPP 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 Entity ID 598 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6‒8 Total 2,189 2,110 2,037 1,974 1,970 1,989 1,893 1,802 1,746 1,777 1,799 Marysville Getchell HS 1,344 1,270 1,189 1,144 1,128 1,083 1,050 1,046 1,044 1,001 965 Marysville Pilchuck HS 1,183 1,175 1,151 1,108 1,061 1,012 1,003 955 955 928 875 Heritage HS 119 117 123 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 Legacy HS 151 176 166 178 180 181 181 181 181 181 181 Entity ID 598 25 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 9‒12 Total 2,822 2,761 2,652 2,551 2,490 2,397 2,355 2,303 2,301 2,231 2,142 District-wide Total 9,368 9,137 8,906 8,674 8,532 8,406 8,312 8,217 8,170 8,143 8,099 Notes * Effectively two programs on a single school campus. Entity ID 598 is comprised of 18-21 Year Old, Sp. Ed. Out of District, and Sp. Ed. Other. Students enrolled in Open Doors and full-time Running Start are excluded from analysis. Sources Marysville School District October 2023–24 enrollment and FLO October 2024–25 to 2028–29 and 2033–34 enrollment forecasts (low scenario).